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A recent saying has been circulating in the community: a senior research director mentioned in an interview that Bitcoin could potentially break its all-time high in the first half of 2026. It sounds promising, but the reasons he provided are worth a deeper look.
First is the demand for hedging assets. As global economic uncertainty rises, institutional and individual investors are seeking alternative value storage tools. Bitcoin's positioning as "digital gold" has gained more attention in this context.
Second is the dollar issue. If the US dollar continues to weaken, Bitcoin priced in dollars will naturally appear more valuable. This is not Bitcoin strengthening, but a relative effect of the dollar weakening.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy stance plays a role. If the Fed indeed initiates a rate-cutting cycle, expectations of liquidity easing will boost risk asset valuations, and Bitcoin will be affected accordingly.
Finally, policy shifts are also influential. Progress in the US Congress regarding the structure of the cryptocurrency market suggests that regulatory frameworks may become clearer, boosting confidence among institutional investors to enter the market.
These four factors support each other, but whether they can truly materialize depends on market sentiment. Currently, this logical chain is not based on mere imagination and warrants ongoing observation.
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2026 is still early, let's see how the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates next year.
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Only when regulators are friendly enough will institutions dare to come; that's somewhat reliable.
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Four factors stacking up sound good, but which one can actually be implemented is a question.
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Honestly, it's still a gamble on the dollar and rate cuts; everything else is just fluff.
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The argument about hedging assets is pure nonsense; when a real crisis hits, Bitcoin will still plunge.
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The logical chain feels a bit fragile; missing one link can cause everything to fail.
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Instead of listening to research directors talk, it's better to see where institutions are actually pouring their money.
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I just want to laugh at the devaluation of the dollar pushing up BTC valuation; it's just a copycat.
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Interest rate cut cycle? Just look at the current hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.
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Regulatory framework is clear, so institutions dare to enter? Ha, they are still bickering over there in the US.
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Four factors supporting each other, just listen and don't take it seriously.
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It sounds good, but it's still betting on market sentiment to hold.
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I've heard this logic too many times; every time they say the next wave is inevitable, but what’s the result?
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The positioning of digital gold has been called for so many years, but when real risk appears, it drops first.
The devaluation of the dollar is quite credible, but the real variable is how the Fed and these people will actually do things.
Institutional entry does signal optimism, but regulation... well, believe it or not.
If you ask me, it still depends on liquidity. Don't be fooled by grand narratives.
Right now, this logic sounds perfect, but where's the gap?
Instead of predicting new highs, it's better to keep a close eye on the current support levels.