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Let's briefly discuss the recent market trends and the overall logic 🔥🔥🔥
The US move against Venezuela is essentially about regaining control over oil discourse, indirectly weakening China's strategic layout in energy, but this is not the core of the game.
The more critical point is that China is likely to focus on the gold system next, by raising gold prices and strengthening the currency anchor of BRICS countries, to improve overall bargaining power and achieve "more selling and less buying" in international trade, hedging against the impact of the US dollar system.
Gold and the US dollar are classic pendulum relationships.
When gold strengthens, the dollar weakens, which aligns perfectly with Peter Schiff's emphasis on gold logic. In this environment, Bitcoin may temporarily weaken—not because BTC is failing, but because, at the macro consensus level, gold remains more stable and more accepted by the mainstream than Bitcoin.
In the short term, gold is likely to remain strong. On one hand, due to safe-haven demand; on the other, due to market expectations of liquidity returning. However, I personally do not fully agree with the narrative of "immediate rate cuts," which seems more like speculation about the January FOMC meeting. The real timing window, I lean towards May–June.
Another variable that cannot be ignored is silver.
This wave of silver's rise is mostly a follow-up to gold's rally. If silver is significantly suppressed, the upward momentum of gold will also be affected. The game between China and the US over precious metal pricing power is far from over.
From a trader's perspective, if you want to minimize directional risk, you might consider $PAXG + $BTC as a combined dollar-cost averaging strategy, essentially a hedge bet. But to be clear, no strategy is foolproof—the market is always right, and the only ones who can be wrong are ourselves.
One conclusion: in the short term, bullish; in the medium term, bearish; long-term outlook remains uncertain for now. Focus on the linkage between gold, silver, and the US dollar.