Copper prices hit a historic high, with institutions optimistic about continued growth in 2026

LME copper performance has been outstanding in recent months, reaching a historic high of $12,276 per ton, while COMEX copper also broke through $5.80 per pound on December 26, with an increase of over 3%. From the beginning of the year to now, LME copper has risen by a total of 37%, demonstrating a strong upward trend.

Dual factors driving copper prices higher

The current surge in copper prices is the result of combined supply and demand forces. On the supply side, major copper mining regions worldwide have repeatedly reported production disruptions, directly reducing global copper output. Additionally, expectations of U.S. tariff policies have intensified, leading to a large inflow of copper into the U.S. for stockpiling, which has continuously drained spot inventories in other regions, further exacerbating the global supply-demand imbalance.

This structural supply tightness, coupled with policy expectations, has driven copper prices to continuously break through previous highs.

Institutional outlook remains optimistic

Looking ahead to 2026, several leading Wall Street institutions have issued optimistic forecasts. JPMorgan estimates that the global refined copper market will face a shortfall of approximately 330,000 tons. The bank predicts copper prices will reach $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, with an average annual price of about $12,075.

UBS has adjusted its outlook, believing that copper prices in 2026 could range between $11,500 and $13,000 per ton. Citigroup is more aggressive, with a baseline expectation of reaching $13,000 per ton in Q2 2026. In a bullish scenario, supported by dollar depreciation and Federal Reserve rate cuts, copper prices could even surge to $15,000 per ton.

Market logic analysis

The logical chain supporting continued copper price increases has already taken shape: supply constraints are unlikely to reverse the short-term trend, strong U.S. demand continues to drain inventories, and a loose policy environment favors commodity performance. These factors reinforce each other, forming the driving force behind rising copper prices.

For investors focused on commodities, it is crucial to closely monitor the progress of global copper mine resumption, U.S. policy directions, and exchange rate fluctuations, as these will directly impact the actual performance of copper prices.