2026 Asset Allocation Guide: Interpretation of Investment Opportunities in the Three Major Fields of Cryptocurrency, Commodities, and Forex

2025年落下帷幕，各类资产表现分化明显。进入2026年，从比特币、以太坊等数字资产，到黄金、白银等避险品，再到美元、日元等外汇品种，究竟哪些将成为配置重点？多家全球顶级金融机构纷纷给出了答案。

Cryptocurrency Assets: New Cycles for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin Price Surges to $150,000

In 2025, Bitcoin experienced rollercoaster-like movements, ending the year roughly flat. However, entering 2026, institutional optimism has noticeably increased. Standard Chartered lowered its Bitcoin target price from $200,000 to $150,000, which, despite the “downgrade,” still implies significant gains in 2026. Investment bank Bernstein is more optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026 and hit $200,000 in 2027.

The current spot price of Bitcoin is approximately $91,260. Based on this, the target price increase is about 64%. In RMB terms, with the current offshore RMB to USD exchange rate around 7.1, Bitcoin’s current price is roughly 6.48 million RMB, while the $150,000 target corresponds to about 1.065 million RMB.

Bernstein’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin has broken free from the traditional four-year cycle and is entering a more sustainable growth trajectory. However, Morgan Stanley remains cautious, suggesting the Bitcoin bull market may be nearing its end. This divergence reflects differing market views on the long-term prospects of crypto assets.

Ethereum Embraces Tokenization Wave

Ethereum’s 2025 was also volatile but ended flat. Looking ahead to 2026, institutions generally remain bullish on its prospects. JPMorgan emphasizes that tokenization has huge growth potential, and this trend relies on the infrastructure support provided by the Ethereum blockchain.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, offers a more aggressive outlook, believing the tokenization wave will reshape the entire crypto supercycle. He states Ethereum hit bottom in 2025 and will see a substantial rally in 2026, boldly predicting a target price of $20,000.

Traditional Safe-Haven Assets: Long-term Support for Gold and Silver

Gold Breaks Through the $4,900 Key Level

In 2025, gold performed remarkably, rising over 60% for the year—the largest annual gain since 1979. This rally was driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts, continuous central bank purchases, and escalating geopolitical risks.

Looking into 2026, the World Gold Council expects gold prices to continue rising. Against the backdrop of further Fed rate cuts, a pressured US dollar, and rising geopolitical tensions, gold is projected to increase by 5% to 15% in 2026. In extreme scenarios (global economic slowdown combined with significant Fed rate cuts), the increase could reach 15% to 30%.

Several investment banks have raised their target prices. Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by year-end, supported by increased central bank purchases and sustained ETF inflows. Bank of America is even more optimistic, believing that expanding US fiscal deficits and rising debt levels will benefit gold in the long term, with a target of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Silver’s Gains May Outpace Gold

In 2025, silver’s gains were even more impressive, rising over 120%, far surpassing gold. The World Silver Survey points to strong industrial demand growth and a rebound in investment interest, but mine supply growth has slowed, leading to a long-term structural supply gap in the global silver market.

This gap is expected to persist or even widen in 2026, providing strong support for silver prices. UBS has raised its 2026 silver target price to $58–$60 per ounce, with the possibility of reaching $65. Bank of America also remains bullish, expecting silver to hit $65 per ounce in 2026.

Forex Market: Diverging Dollar Trends

EUR/USD: Reaching a High in an Uptrend

In 2025, EUR/USD was driven by dollar depreciation, rising 13% and reaching a near eight-year high. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, as the Fed leans toward rate cuts while the ECB’s rates remain relatively stable, leading to a divergence in monetary policies that supports the euro.

JPMorgan and Nomura are bullish, expecting EUR/USD to reach 1.20 by the end of 2026, with Bank of America targeting even higher at 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley warns of risks, suggesting that in the second half of the year, the “strong dollar, weak euro” pattern may emerge, with EUR/USD retreating from a high of 1.23 to around 1.16, and investors should be alert to risk reversals.

USD/JPY: Divergent Institutional Views

In 2025, USD/JPY fluctuated slightly, ending down about 1%. Expectations for 2026 vary greatly. JPMorgan, Barclays, and others are bullish, predicting the pair will rise to 164 by year-end; meanwhile, Citi and Nomura are bearish, expecting a decline to 140.

Nomura’s reasoning is that the market has fully priced in the Bank of Japan’s rate hike expectations, and the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential will weaken the yen’s carry trade appeal. If US economic weakness triggers unwinding of carry trades, the yen could face upward pressure.

Commodities: Crude Oil Faces Continued Downward Pressure

In 2025, crude oil prices fell sharply by nearly 20%, mainly due to OPEC+ resuming production cuts and US shale output increasing. In 2026, oversupply is expected to worsen further, exerting downward pressure on prices.

Goldman Sachs forecasts WTI crude will fall to $52 per barrel in 2026, with Brent dropping to $56. JPMorgan’s estimates are slightly higher, with WTI at $54 and Brent at $58.

Overall Outlook

The core logic for asset allocation in 2026 is: crypto assets, driven by the tokenization wave, regain institutional attention; gold and silver, as long-term safe havens, still have upside potential; and the foreign exchange market is mainly influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations and divergent economic fundamentals across countries. Investors should understand the risks thoroughly and allocate flexibly according to their investment frameworks.