Will the Benner Cycle Hold Up? What Crypto Investors Need to Know About This 150-Year-Old Forecast

The cryptocurrency market has been buzzing with talk of an obscure economic chart that promises to predict the next bull run. Retail traders are increasingly citing the Benner Cycle – a predictive tool dating back nearly two centuries – to justify their bullish positioning for 2025 and 2026. Yet recent market turmoil is testing whether this ancient forecast method actually works in today’s volatile landscape.

The Origins: How a Farmer’s Loss Led to a Market Prophecy

The story of the Benner Cycle begins with loss. In 1873, farmer Samuel Benner watched his wealth evaporate during an economic crisis. Rather than give up, he became obsessed with understanding market patterns. He began analyzing historical price movements and eventually published Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices in 1875, laying out what would become known as the Benner Cycle.

Unlike modern quantitative models, Benner’s approach was remarkably straightforward. He believed solar cycles influenced agricultural productivity, which in turn drove commodity prices and broader market movements. His framework divided the market into three phases:

• Line A: Years of panic and market drops
• Line B: Boom periods ideal for selling positions
• Line C: Recession phases perfect for buying opportunities

What made Benner’s work compelling was his confidence. The farmer ended his research with a simple declaration: “Absolute certainty.” Nearly 200 years later, those three words still resonate with traders seeking clarity in chaotic markets.

Why Crypto Traders Are Obsessed With This Chart Right Now

According to Benner’s extended forecast (mapped through 2059), the next major market peak should arrive around 2026. This projection has ignited enthusiasm in the crypto community, with influential investors promoting the Benner Cycle as evidence that a major bull run is imminent.

Investor Panos has been particularly vocal about the chart’s track record. He points to several historical correlations: the Great Depression of 1929, World War II’s economic disruptions, the tech bubble burst, and the COVID-19 market crash all aligned – at least roughly – with Benner’s predicted cycles. More relevantly, he argues that 2023 represented the optimal entry point for accumulation, and 2026 marks the target year for taking profits.

The logic appeals to a certain type of trader: if Benner correctly identified major financial upheavals over 150 years, why should we ignore his forecast now? This reasoning has spread rapidly across crypto social media, with many viewing 2024–2026 as the window for explosive gains, particularly in emerging sectors like Crypto AI and Layer 2 solutions.

The Cracks Are Starting to Show

However, recent market behavior is creating serious doubts about the Benner Cycle’s continued relevance.

In early April, geopolitical tensions triggered sharp market corrections. On April 7 alone – a day some traders have labeled “Black Monday” – the total cryptocurrency market capitalization plummeted from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion, erasing over $300 billion in value within hours. While markets have since stabilized, the volatility contradicts the optimistic timeline embedded in the Benner Cycle forecast.

Traditional financial institutions are also signaling caution. JPMorgan recently increased its recession probability forecast to 60% for 2025, citing economic headwinds and trade policy uncertainty. Goldman Sachs followed suit, raising its 12-month recession forecast to 45% – the highest level since the post-pandemic inflation period. These macro warnings stand in stark contrast to the bullish narrative that Benner Cycle believers are promoting.

Even among technical analysts, skepticism is rising. Veteran trader Peter Brandt took to X (formerly Twitter) to dismiss the Benner Cycle as more hindrance than help:

“I don’t know how much I would trust this. I need to deal only with the trades I enter and exit. This kind of chart is more of a distraction than anything else for me.”

Why People Still Believe

Despite mounting headwinds, the Benner Cycle retains a devoted following in the retail crypto space. Investor Crynet offered a psychological perspective on the phenomenon:

“Market peak in 2026 gives us one more year if history decides to repeat itself. Sounds crazy? Of course. But remember: markets are more than just numbers; they are about mood, memory, and momentum. And sometimes these old charts work – not because they are magical, but because many people believe in them.”

This observation cuts to the heart of the debate. The Benner Cycle’s predictive power may matter less than its capacity to shape investor psychology. When enough market participants believe in a shared narrative – even one rooted in 150-year-old agricultural price theory – that collective belief can influence actual market behavior.

Google Trends data reinforces this point. Search interest in “Benner Cycle” spiked significantly in recent weeks, indicating that retail traders are actively seeking out this narrative during periods of economic uncertainty. The appeal is obvious: in a chaotic, unpredictable world, people crave certainty – even if it comes from a questionable source.

The Bottom Line

The Benner Cycle represents an interesting case study in how market participants cope with uncertainty. Whether it accurately predicts future market peaks remains an open question, but what’s undeniable is its growing influence on retail trader sentiment and positioning.

For now, the crypto market remains caught between two competing narratives: the optimistic 2026 peak forecast championed by Benner believers, and the recession warnings issued by major financial institutions. Which one proves correct will depend less on the cycle itself and more on the actual economic, geopolitical, and regulatory developments that unfold over the next 18 months.