Forecast Market Insider Trading Risk Warning: Ethical Bottom Line and Legal Risks Coexist

【Blockchain Rhythms】The rapid development of prediction markets has attracted a large number of participants, but the associated risks cannot be ignored. Industry veterans have recently publicly expressed strong disapproval of insider trading behaviors in prediction markets.

This industry voice highlights a key issue: if insider trading is gradually accepted in prediction markets, it is very likely to be redefined as a certain “feature” rather than a flaw. Such a shift would be extremely dangerous.

Specifically, on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, once someone trades based on non-public information, this behavior already constitutes insider trading. Interestingly, even if a person merely detects a hint of non-public information, they should resolutely avoid related markets.

From a legal perspective, while insider traders may narrowly escape punishment, they could also face legal difficulties. Some have already faced serious consequences for insider trading in prediction markets. Taking such risks is simply not worth it.

More importantly, there are moral considerations. Knowing that the chances of making a profit are guaranteed and still engaging in such speculation is essentially a moral decline—exploiting ordinary participants who lack informational advantages. Such trading methods are unacceptable from any perspective. The long-term healthy development of prediction markets requires participants to uphold compliance awareness and ethical bottom lines together.