2026 Markets: Institutions Weigh In on Gold, Bitcoin, and Major Assets — What the Data Reveals

After weathering the volatility of 2025, markets face a pivotal year ahead. Leading financial institutions are divided on where major asset classes will head. Here’s what the consensus — and the contrasts — tell us.

Precious Metals Set for Sustained Strength

Gold’s Remarkable Streak

Gold had an extraordinary 2025, surging 60% — its best year since 1979. The World Gold Council signals the momentum may continue into 2026, projecting gains of 5%–15%, with potential for 15%–30% upside in extreme scenarios involving aggressive monetary easing and economic slowdown.

Major banks have turned decidedly bullish. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz, anchored by persistent central bank demand and ETF inflows. Bank of America is even more constructive, forecasting USD 5,000/oz as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and mounting debt levels provide steady support. The consensus price range clusters between USD 4,500–5,000 per ounce.

Silver’s Structural Tailwinds

Silver outpaced gold in 2025 as the gold-to-silver ratio compressed sharply. The Silver Institute warns of a widening structural supply deficit driven by industrial demand recovery and slowing production growth — a dynamic expected to intensify through 2026.

UBS has raised its silver target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside to USD 65/oz. Bank of America echoes this view, also projecting USD 65/oz. Supply constraints appear increasingly supportive for prices.

Cryptocurrency at an Inflection Point

Bitcoin’s Cycle Debate

Bitcoin finished 2025 nearly flat after hitting record highs, leaving institutions divided on 2026 prospects. Standard Chartered has tempered optimism, revising its target downward from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing expectations that corporate treasury accumulation will ease. Yet ETF flows should remain a tailwind.

Bernstein projects Bitcoin reaching USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 by 2027, arguing the asset has escaped its traditional four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase. Morgan Stanley takes the opposing view: the cycle persists, and the bull market nears exhaustion. Current Bitcoin trading at $93.80K (+0.40% in 24 hours) sits between these competing narratives.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Story

Ethereum also ended 2025 flat despite higher volatility than Bitcoin. Yet institutional interest is warming. JPMorgan highlights tokenization’s transformative potential — a trend heavily dependent on Ethereum’s infrastructure. BitMain’s Tom Lee is particularly bullish, forecasting ETH at USD 20,000 in 2026, arguing the cryptocurrency bottomed in 2025.

At $3.28K (+3.75% over 24 hours), Ethereum appears to be gaining momentum as blockchain applications expand.

Equities: The AI Tailwind Continues

Nasdaq 100’s Third Consecutive Surge

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% return and extending its three-year winning streak. JPMorgan expects this strength to persist, fueled by sustained AI capital expenditure from hyperscale data center operators — Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta — collectively committing hundreds of billions through 2026. This spending should support semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 potentially approaching 7,500, while Deutsche Bank’s optimistic scenarios target 8,000 by year-end, assuming robust earnings and continued AI-driven investment. Analysts extrapolate that Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026.

Currency Markets: Divergence on Major Pairs

EUR/USD Climbing Amid Policy Divergence

EUR/USD rallied 13% in 2025 — its largest annual gain in nearly eight years — as the dollar weakened. For 2026, most institutions expect further appreciation, supported by contrasting monetary policies: Fed rate cuts versus the ECB holding steady.

JPMorgan and Nomura project EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end; Bank of America is more constructive at 1.22. Morgan Stanley, however, warns of a mid-year reversal: it forecasts an initial push to 1.23, then a retreat to 1.16 in H2 2026 as U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY: A House Divided

USD/JPY ended 2025 modestly lower, and forecasts for 2026 sharply diverge. JPMorgan and Barclays are bullish, with JPMorgan targeting 164 by year-end, arguing that BOJ rate-hike expectations are priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion will weigh on the yen.

Citigroup and Nomura turn bearish, contending that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode yen carry trade appeal. If U.S. economic data weakens, carry-trade unwinding could trigger yen strength. Nomura projects USD/JPY falling to 140.

Energy Markets: Oversupply Risks Loom

Crude Oil Under Pressure

Crude oil tumbled nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored output and U.S. production climbed. Institutions increasingly see downside risks for 2026, skewed toward oversupply if OPEC+ maintains elevated levels and global demand moderates.

Goldman Sachs outlined a bearish scenario: WTI averaging USD 52/barrel and Brent around USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly flagged downside, with WTI near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel, contingent on persistent supply surpluses.

The Bottom Line

2026 shapes up as a year of bifurcated outlooks: precious metals enjoy structural support, equities ride the AI wave, cryptocurrencies remain cyclically contested, and energy faces pressure. For traders converting currencies — whether tracking GBP to USD movements or broader forex trends — volatility stemming from divergent monetary policies and geopolitical risks will likely remain elevated. Institutions broadly advise selective positioning rather than broad-based optimism.