ADA, technical bullish signals and whale accumulation align to break through $0.49

Technical pattern signals a ‘bullish signal’… Breakout from falling wedge and targeting $0.49

The chart of Cardano(ADA) is at an interesting juncture. On December 3rd, it broke through the upper boundary of a typical bullish reversal pattern, the falling wedge(. Currently, it is in a retest phase, re-confirming the previous resistance line as support, which is interpreted as the ‘final hurdle’ before a full-fledged upward trend.

Technical indicators are also showing movement. RSI is currently at 43, still below the 50 level, but steadily rising from lows, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing. The MACD already completed a golden cross last week and maintains a buy signal. With the current price fluctuating around $0.41 and a solid support at $0.43, further upside to $0.49 could be a realistic target.

“Retail sells, whales buy”… On-chain data reveals fund movements

An interesting point is the fund movement happening within the market, separate from the chart. According to Santiment’s on-chain data platform, a clear ‘large position shift’ occurred after December 2nd.

Mid-sized holders with 100,000 to 1,000,000 ADA have sold about 90 million ADA into the market. Conversely, large holders with 10 million to 1 billion ADA accumulated 160 million ADA during the same period. This suggests that during a bearish phase, small investors cut losses while wealthy players took advantage of the low prices to buy. Such patterns are generally seen as precursors to bottom formation.

‘Long preference’ signal in the futures market… Funding rate turns positive

Market sentiment in the futures market is also shifting rapidly. According to CoinGlass data, ADA’s weighted funding rate has entered positive territory since Monday, currently at 0.0074%. A positive funding rate means long position holders pay short position holders, indicating that bullish traders are leading the market.

CryptoQuant’s large order analysis also conveys the same message: buy orders are overwhelming sell orders across both spot and futures markets.

Short-term outlook: potential for additional rally if $0.43 support holds

In summary, technical patterns, on-chain fund movements, and futures market sentiment all point toward an upward trend. If the $0.43 support holds, a retest of the $0.49 high is likely, and breaking through that level could signal an imminent trend reversal.

However, there are risks. If RSI fails to break above 50 and declines, a retracement to the December 1st low of $0.37 could occur. For short-term traders, whether $0.37 support holds will be a key point for stop-loss decisions.