Today’s analysis using moving averages.

Since ETH retreated after approaching the $3,300 level, this is a typical “false breakout” or “pressure-triggered correction” from a technical perspective. Currently, the price has fallen back to around $3,240 - $3,250, and the entry point for short positions has entered the “confirmation stage.”
Combining the latest moving averages (MA) and KDJ trends
1. Current market situation analysis: What does the rebound and fall mean?
1. Confirmation of resistance: The vicinity of $3,300 is not only a psychological barrier but also a major zone for bulls to take profits and bears to set traps. The rebound and fall indicate that selling pressure above is much heavier than buying pressure.
2. KDJ trend: At this time, the 1-hour and 4-hour KDJ indicators are highly likely forming a death cross from above 80 (or the J line is rapidly turning downward). This is a sign of waning momentum.
3. Moving average divergence: The price just surged too quickly, causing a significant deviation from the 5-day moving average (MA5, currently around $3,220). According to the mean reversion principle, the price strongly desires to move closer to MA5 or even MA10.
2. Adjustment of short entry points
Since the fall has already occurred, the current entry logic shifts from “ambush” to “confirmation of breakdown”:
Strategy 1: Aggressive (enter on rebound)
• Entry zone: $3,260 - $3,275
• Logic: After a rapid decline, the price often experiences a slight “second rebound.” If this rebound cannot recover $3,280, it indicates bears have control.
• Stop loss: $3,280 (if the price breaks above the recent high again, exit the short position).
Strategy 2: Conservative (wait for breakdown to add positions)
• Entry zone: Short on a break below $3,220 (support level of MA5).
• Logic: Once $3,220 is broken, it means the short-term upward trendline has been broken, and the death cross on KDJ will officially open downward, creating space.
• Stop loss: $3220

3. Target levels and risk management
• First target (short-term): $3,180 (upper edge of yesterday’s consolidation zone, with minor support).
• Second target (wave): $3,110 - $3,130 (support zone at MA10 on the daily chart).
• Key signal reminder: If the price returns to $3,250 and continues to oscillate for more than 4 hours without falling, be cautious of the risk of KDJ forcibly forming a “golden cross” near 50 and rising again.
4. Summary and recommendations
“Rebound and fall” is the most favored script for shorting. *Watch KDJ: If the 15-minute/1-hour death cross has already closed downward, enter directly.
• Watch moving averages: As long as the price stays below $3,260 (hourly MA5), short positions can be held.