Overview of the current situation.

We have just entered 2026, and even though the first trading week has not yet concluded, numerous new developments have already emerged. The market is in a state of information overload.

From the beginning of the year, we knew that 2026 would be a year with many major events:

Who will become the next Fed Chair, whether this person can cut interest rates as President Trump desires, the Supreme Court's rulings related to Trump administration's trade policies, the risk of the US government shutting down again at the end of January, and of course, all news revolving around the midterm elections.

However, what has happened so far far exceeds what most of the market was prepared for.

The weekend developments in Venezuela quickly escalated into a geopolitical issue, with oil and defense spending becoming focal points. President Trump’s comments about Greenland, which were previously seen as “meme,” are now being taken seriously and could even lead to military tensions.

In this context, catalysts that once dominated the market a month ago, such as tariffs, interest rates, and inflation, seem to have been deprioritized. But in reality, everything remains closely interconnected.

The market initially reacted positively, but in the medium and long term, most traders are still very confused. Nothing is easy to assess. It’s unclear whether President Trump’s mention of the potential use of military force in Venezuela or Greenland is a real threat or just a bargaining chip. The big question is how all these factors will impact gold, oil, and of course, BTC.

So far, oil prices have not reacted strongly. Yes, prices have fluctuated over the past few days, but remain within normal ranges. The main reason is that the market is waiting for responses from China and Russia.

In the long term, if everything unfolds as President Trump hopes, oil prices could decline due to increased supply, including Russian oil if the Ukraine war ends. When that will happen is unknown, but increased oil supply generally helps reduce inflationary pressures.

Conversely, if the US moves toward large-scale spending on Greenland, Venezuela, or military expenditures, this would mean higher public debt. In that case, the Fed might be forced to intervene, even print more money. If the economy is not strong enough, the Fed could also be compelled to cut interest rates to stimulate growth.

Everything is happening very quickly, similar to last year’s tariff developments. Time is a crucial factor for President Trump as the midterm elections approach, and voters will care more about the economy and inflation than anything else, including the health of the financial markets.