TGE Market Analysis 2025: Most projects show declines below the initial valuation, with record losses outweighing profits

Annual monitoring of 118 token-generation events reveals a catastrophic picture: over four-fifths of all projects are trading below their initial listing price. Most notably, larger initiatives with the highest FDV have suffered the worst losses.

Scale of the catastrophe: the dominance of red figures

The statistics are undeniable — out of 118 analyzed tokens:

• 84.7% (100 projects) fell below the TGE starting valuation
• The median reduction in FDV reached 71.1%, and market capitalization dropped by 66.8%
• Only 15.3% showed growth, with a median increase of 109.7%
• The rest experienced an average decline of 76.8%

The imbalance between the balanced portfolio (decline of 33.3%) and the FDV-weighted portfolio (decline of 61.5%) is particularly striking. This directly indicates that large and actively promoted projects failed significantly worse than smaller startups.

Where the losses are concentrated: sector analysis

The year 2025 left a distinct mark on the TGE distribution:

Infrastructure and AI — poles of disappointment
These two sectors account for 60% of all new listings but demonstrate the worst results. The median decline in Infrastructure reaches 72%, in AI — 82%. Excessive competition and inflated expectations cause investors to become disappointed immediately after listing.

DeFi — the most resilient category
With 32% of successful projects in this sphere, it shows the highest survival rate. Although the results are not joyful, this is where the selection of “strong” players has manifested.

Perp DEX — an unusual success
Decentralized perpetual contract exchanges (Hyperliquid, Aster) showed an average growth of 213% — the only true triumph of 2025. The sample is small, but the trend is clear.

Gaming projects
A small sample size prevents reliable conclusions; results vary greatly.

The decisive factor: a strict pattern of initial valuation

Empirical data reveal a critical dependency:

Projects with FDV ≥ 1.1 billion dollars:

• None of the 28 such tokens showed growth
• The median decline is about 81%
• All fell below the TGE price without exception

Distribution by initial FDV quartiles:

• The lowest quartile (cheaper valuations): 40% of projects grew, median decline -26%
• Higher quartiles: median decline from -70% to -83%, with practically no positive results

The conclusion is unequivocal: the higher the initial valuation, the worse the final decline. Overestimated value at listing remains the most reliable predictor of subsequent collapse.

Practical conclusions for investors

Based on these data, clear market realities emerge:

1. TGE is no longer an early entry point — on the contrary, it often represents a price peak, especially for hyper-motivated projects with weak fundamentals.

2. The median TGE-investment strategy needs reorientation — if you enter at TGE, you are essentially betting on finding a rare exception among the 118 analyzed tokens.

3. Valuation size is a critical risk indicator — projects with low initial FDV showed promising results, while “blockbusters” experienced catastrophic declines.

4. Sector matters, but not absolutely — AI and Infra remain risky choices, DeFi is somewhat more resilient, and Perp DEX is an exceptional positive case.

The 2025 annual report makes it crystal clear: this is a period of restructuring and revaluation, where most projects continue to fall freely below their starting points, with only a few outstanding initiatives defying the trend.