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Tonight's Focus on Canadian CPI! Rate Cut Bets Stir the Market
Tonight at 21:30, Canada's December CPI month-over-month figures will be released, with market expectations at -0.3% (previously 0.1%). The cooling inflation outlook is heating up, which will directly influence the CAD, precious metals, and the Bank of Canada's rate cut pace.
The expected turn to negative is mainly due to weakening energy prices, seasonal promotions, and high base effects. If the data meets expectations, it will reinforce the rate cut bet in March, pressuring the CAD (possibly dropping to 1.3550-1.3600), and boosting gold to break through $2150; if the data unexpectedly strengthens, the rate cut may be delayed, leading to a rebound in the CAD (1.3450-1.3500), and precious metals facing a correction.
Be alert to the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market, closely watch the central bank signals after the data release, and seize short-term trading opportunities.