Wintermute: The four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies is dead; the market trend in 2026 will be determined by liquidity.

DeepFlowTech · 2026-01-19T14:44:31+00:00

Wintermute analysis indicates that the traditional four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies is no longer applicable, with 2025 marking the market's transition toward a mature asset class. ETFs and DATs form a "walled garden," making it difficult for funds to flow into the broader market, and the altcoin rally cycle shortens. In 2026, market expansion may depend on the expansion of ETF coverage, the rise of Bitcoin or Ethereum, and retail investors returning to the crypto space. The analysis suggests that the expansion of liquidity scope and market centralization will influence future investment strategies.

DeepFlowTech

2026-01-19 14:44:31

Abstract generation in progress

Deep Tide TechFlow News, January 19 — According to Wintermute analysis, the four-year cycle of traditional cryptocurrencies is no longer applicable, and 2025 marks the beginning of the crypto market’s transition from speculation to a mature asset class.

The report points out that ETFs and DATs have evolved into “walled gardens,” providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but funds find it difficult to flow into broader markets. In 2025, the average rally period for altcoins is only 20 days, significantly shorter than the 60 days in 2024, indicating an extremely concentrated market.

Wintermute predicts three possible paths for market expansion in 2026: ETFs and DATs expanding investment scope (with SOL and XRP ETF applications already underway); strong gains in Bitcoin or Ethereum driving wealth effects; retail investors shifting focus from stocks (AI, rare earths, quantum) back to the crypto sector.

Analysis suggests that the market trajectory in 2026 will depend on whether these catalysts can significantly expand liquidity or whether market concentration continues. Understanding capital flows and structural changes will determine investment strategies in 2026.

SOL3,58%

XRP3,93%

BTC4,37%

ETH3,21%

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