2026-01-20 05:42:56

Where will the prediction market head in the next phase?

【Plain Language Guide】Prediction markets are no longer just gambling; they are becoming the underlying infrastructure for options, insurance, and governance. Prediction markets have surged to a $60 billion-level track, with Polymarket and Kalshi engaged in fierce competition.

Polymarket builds a liquidity moat through crypto + compliance + Web2 collaborations (UFC, NFL) + on-chain airdrops; Kalshi leverages regulatory advantages and $300 million in funding to expand globally to 140 countries, deeply integrating into high-traffic DeFi platforms. The three major future trends are: perpetual options—wrapping volatility into simple, understandable binary markets;

On-chain native risk hedging—filling the gap in DeFi insurance;
Vertical disaggregation—emerging professional aggregators, AI arbitrage, social entertainment, influence/opinion/coordination markets.

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