Core Strategy Range: $2,860 - $3,080

This is a critical boundary area between bullish and bearish sentiments. Market sentiment and technical signals are diverging within this range.

Two Contrasting Views

1. Bullish Perspective: Stable Structure, Rebound Expected

· Core Logic: Price forms a “higher low” above key support, indicating buying interest absorbing selling pressure, and the trend remains intact.
· Key Support: $2,860 - $2,780. This is the lifeline of the bullish structure; a break below invalidates the outlook.
· Upside Targets: If support holds, the first target is the resistance zone at $3,080 - $3,150; further breakthroughs could see prices rise to $3,340 - $3,600.
· Main Basis: Whale accumulation, institutional interest (e.g., BlackRock preparing to launch staking ETFs), technical patterns (such as diamond reversals, macro double bottoms).

2. Bearish Perspective: Weak Momentum, Risks Persist

· Core Logic: Price is suppressed below multiple key moving averages, with several technical indicators signaling sell, indicating short-term weak momentum.
· Key Risk: If the $2,860 - $2,780 support zone is broken, it could trigger accelerated decline, targeting $2,600 or even lower.
· Downside Targets: Initial support at $2,880 - $2,920; if broken, targets are $2,600 - $2,750.
· Main Basis: Technical indicators show “strong sell” signals, market lacks clear bullish momentum, and there is a risk of a “bear flag” bearish pattern.

How to Formulate Your Strategy

You can choose based on your risk preference:

· If you are an aggressive trader:
· Long idea: Try a small position around $2,900 - $2,950, but set stop-loss below $2,780. If the price stabilizes, consider partial profit-taking around $3,080 - $3,150.
· Short idea: Wait for a rebound to the resistance zone at $3,080 - $3,150 to encounter resistance, or observe the follow-up opportunity if $2,780 support is broken, but be aware of potential rebound at this level.
· If you are a conservative trader:
· It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer signals. Focus on two directions:
· Bullish breakout signal: Daily close above $3,150.
· Bearish breakdown signal: Daily close below $2,780.

Overall, Ethereum is at a critical decision point today. The $2,780 - $2,860 range is the core zone for short-term bullish or bearish judgment. Before trading, be sure to set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your own situation.