Bitcoin at the Crossroads: Will the Second Transition from Bear to Bull Market Repeat?

Recent Bitcoin market analysis indicates that the price is at a critical turning point. Based on in-depth quantitative models, we will examine whether the trend is truly reversing or just a temporary recovery.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Breaks Through Key Resistance Level

In the previous weeks, Bitcoin completed a short-term transaction with a result of -1.07%, indicating the difficulty when the market revolves around sensitive price zones. However, the latest data shows BTC currently at $87.88K, down 1.25% in the past 24 hours, but notably, the highest touch point was $88.97K, closely matching the earlier forecast.

In the recent week, Bitcoin broke through an important resistance zone at 94,500～95,000 USD and reached a high of 97,963 USD, only 0.5% below the expected pressure threshold of 97,500 USD. This signals that technical analysis models are functioning with high accuracy, raising the question of whether the market has enough strength to reverse from bearish to bullish.

Data Interpretation: When Will the Market Truly Change Direction?

Weekly Chart Analysis: Mixed Signals

Looking at the weekly chart, technical indicators show momentum lines gradually converging, with negative energy bars continuing to narrow. However, a key point is that the current signal has not confirmed that the downtrend has truly reversed. Instead, we are witnessing a “waiting” phase — investors are considering the next market move.

A noteworthy detail: the 21-week moving average is seen as the boundary between bulls and bears. If Bitcoin can sustainably surpass this level, it will be a clear sign that the market is shifting from bearish to bullish.

Daily Chart Analysis: Weakening Buying Momentum

On the daily level, last week’s movements followed a “rise first, fall later” pattern. In the first half of the week, Bitcoin’s recovery accelerated with momentum crossing above zero, and positive energy bars expanding rapidly. But in the second half, the energy bars narrowed significantly, and the momentum lines tend to approach the zero axis.

This suggests that buying momentum on the daily chart is weakening. Traders need to closely monitor whether the market will “break through” the zero point or collapse below it. This will be a turning point in determining whether Bitcoin continues its recovery or reverts to a downtrend.

Trading Strategy: Focus on Key Price Zones

Resistance Levels to Watch

First resistance zone: 94,500～95,000 USD — the upper part of the previous trading range. If Bitcoin holds above this level, the likelihood of further recovery increases significantly.

Second resistance zone: 97,500～99,500 USD — the core of the previous trading range, where traders often revolve. Breaking through this will open doors to greater hopes.

Important pressure level: Around 102,000 USD — linked to the 21-week moving average, this will be a major test for the recovery trend.

Support Zones to Note

First support zone: 89,500～91,000 USD — a heavily accumulated trading area, where investors are likely to buy.

Second support zone: 86,000～86,500 USD — an important support area from before, close to the current price.

Main support level: Around 84,000 USD — the lower part of the previous trading range, where the market must defend to avoid significant decline.

Weekly Forecast: Bitcoin Is About to Speak Clearly

This week’s biggest question is whether the 94,500～95,000 USD zone will hold. This will be a decisive point for the next trend:

If resistance holds: Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within 84,000～94,500 USD, with the next target at the support zone 89,500～91,000 USD.

If it holds strongly: Bitcoin could recover further, although gains might be limited by upper pressure zones.

Conclusion: When Will the Bearish Trend Reverse to Bullish?

Bitcoin is currently in a “consolidation” phase — everything depends on whether the market can break through key resistance zones. Current data shows the price at $87.88K, while the all-time high (ATH) is $126.08K, indicating there is still a considerable gap before a genuine bullish trend can be confirmed.

The best trading strategy now is to closely monitor major pressure/support zones, adhere to disciplined risk management, and act only when market signals are sufficiently clear. History may repeat itself, but only when market conditions truly permit, not based on investor expectations.