Gold prices to reach new heights by 2030—Scenario of reaching $8,900 and structural shifts in the market

The latest report from Incrementum, “In Gold We Trust,” suggests that the gold price forecast for 2030 reflects more than just optimistic numbers; it mirrors fundamental changes in the global economy. The basic scenario projects around $4,800, while an inflationary scenario points to approximately $8,900. Considering current market trends, the midpoint or proximity to the inflation scenario is increasingly plausible.

From Peripheral Assets to Core Investment—Structural Enhancement of the Gold Market

Once considered outdated, gold is now regaining its position at the center of capital markets. According to Elliott Wave Theory’s bullish phase analysis, the gold market has moved beyond the accumulation stage and is approaching the second phase, where general investors begin to enter. Media reports are increasingly optimistic, new financial products are continuously launched, and analysts are raising target prices one after another.

Over the past five years, gold prices have risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by nearly 50%. This contrast indicates not just a commodity price increase but a fundamental depreciation of currency value. By early 2025, gold in USD has already surpassed the $3,000 level, forming technical breakthroughs both in absolute price and relative levels (such as compared to stocks).

Money Supply Expansion and Loss of Dollar Confidence Accelerate Gold Prices

Excessive liquidity provision by central banks worldwide is the primary driver of rising gold prices. Since 1900, the US population has increased 4.5 times, while the money supply M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. Per capita, this is an increase of over 500 times, illustrating an imbalance akin to a “steroid-injected athlete” with fragile muscles. Looks impressive, but internally extremely vulnerable.

The G20 countries’ money supply has grown at an average of 7.4% annually, and after three years of negative growth, it is now accelerating again. This monetary expansion continues to be a major long-term driver of gold prices, likely exerting further upward pressure toward 2030. With US Treasury interest payments already exceeding $1 trillion annually—surpassing even the defense budget—more aggressive inflationary monetary policies are becoming increasingly unavoidable.

Central Bank Purchases Bolster Structural Demand

The most critical factor supporting the bullish gold market is the continuous increase in central bank gold holdings. Since the Russia currency crisis in 2022, central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, achieving a “hat trick.” According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold reserves reached 36,252 tons as of February 2025, with gold accounting for 22% of foreign exchange reserves—its highest level since 1997, more than double the low of about 9% in 2016.

Central banks in Asia dominate these purchases, with China continuing to buy gold at a pace of about 40 tons per month. Poland and others are also shifting toward strategic increases in gold reserves, and Russia has increased its gold share from 8% to 34% between 2014 and 2025. These movements reflect a shift away from reliance on traditional currency assets amid rising geopolitical tensions, toward gold as a neutral, counterparty-risk-free asset.

Geopolitical Turmoil and Dollar Hegemony Shake Up Gold’s Value

As Zoltan Pozsar’s “Bretton Woods III” theory suggests, the world is moving toward a new monetary order backed by gold. As US dollar hegemony weakens and Europe undertakes historic fiscal policy shifts, gold’s role as a neutral asset in a multipolar world is rising.

Gold’s advantages are clear. First, gold is neutral and not affiliated with any country or party. Second, gold carries no counterparty risk and is a pure asset. Third, gold is highly liquid; in 2024, the average daily trading volume exceeded $229 billion, and according to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), it can sometimes be more liquid than government bonds.

The radical policy shifts under the Trump administration also boost demand for gold. Escalating trade wars, strategic dollar devaluation, and expanding fiscal deficits collectively could slow the US economy in the short term and pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive monetary easing than before.

New Asset Allocation Strategy Toward 2030—Combining Gold and Bitcoin

The traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio no longer fits the modern financial environment. Incrementum proposes a new 60/40 portfolio with allocations of 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% safe assets in gold, 10% performance gold, 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin.

The key to this allocation is the two-tiered use of gold. One as a safe asset (physical gold), and the other as performance gold (silver, mining stocks, commodities). Historically, silver and mining stocks tend to follow gold’s rise, and by 2030, these sectors could experience a significant rebound.

Bitcoin introduces a new element to this long-term strategy. If by the end of 2030, Bitcoin reaches 50% of gold’s market capitalization, the price per Bitcoin could be around $900,000. Given that current gold market cap is approximately $23 trillion (217,465 tons), the complementary roles of gold and Bitcoin in the non-inflationary asset space become even clearer.

The Shadow Gold Price Indicates Long-Term Upside Potential

The concept of the “shadow gold price” represents the theoretical gold price if the base money supply were fully backed by gold. If the current base money (M0) were 100% backed by gold, the price would need to reach $21,416. A more conservative estimate, based on the 40% backing requirement of the Federal Reserve Act of 1914, suggests a shadow gold price of $8,566.

Looking at international shadow gold prices (if major currency areas’ money supplies were backed by central bank gold reserves), the M0 40% backing level suggests $8,160, while M2 40% backing indicates $92,744. Considering that the current US dollar is only about 14.5 cents backed by gold per dollar, the 2030 gold price forecast has a solid theoretical basis.

Dual Structure of Short-Term Corrections and Long-Term Trends—Addressing Risks

In the short term, gold prices could adjust down to around $2,800. This aligns with historical patterns where bullish markets experienced 20-40% corrections. Unexpected reductions in central bank demand, declines in geopolitical premiums, or stronger-than-expected US economic resilience could trigger such corrections.

High concentration of positions and market sentiment overheat can also increase short-term volatility. As seen during the large sell-off event in April 2025, speculative positions can be rapidly reduced. However, these short-term volatilities do not negate the overall bullish trend; rather, they are part of the process of forming a stable long-term trend.

Conclusion: Gold as the Anchor of a New World Order

The rise in gold prices toward 2030 reflects a fundamental reorganization of the global economic system, not just a market cycle. As confidence in existing currency systems wanes and geopolitical tensions intensify, gold is regaining its role beyond a “portfolio stabilizer” to become a “supra-national settlement asset.”

Multiple mutually reinforcing factors—such as the inevitable reorganization of the global financial and currency systems, government and central bank inflation policies, the rise of gold-friendly economies in Asia and the Arab region, and capital outflows from US assets—support the long-term upward trend of gold.

Currently, the gold market is in the midst of the second phase of a bullish cycle, the “general investor entry period.” Continuing to hold existing investments remains wise, and the market’s appeal for new entrants remains high. The possibility of reaching $8,900 by the end of 2030 is not at all unrealistic; depending on how the global economy unfolds, it could very well be achievable.