Delay in US Consumer Price Index release, increasing uncertainty in macroeconomic outlook

As the US government shutdown prolongs, the release of key economic indicators, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), is increasingly unlikely to proceed as scheduled. The US CPI, which influences the direction of global financial markets and is one of the most closely watched inflation indicators by market participants, is expected to be delayed, directly impacting the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the interest rate cut trajectory.

Economic Data Gaps Caused by the Government Shutdown

Due to the paralysis of government functions, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is unable to perform normal operations. The release of major economic data such as the unadjusted CPI, core CPI annual rates, and monthly rates of seasonally adjusted CPI and core CPI has been postponed or remains uncertain. As a result, investors may lose a critical basis for judging the Fed’s monetary policy direction, potentially increasing market volatility.

FOMC Members’ Recent Statements Signal Market Trends

Key officials within the Federal Reserve are scheduled to make statements regarding monetary policy and economic outlooks. These include FOMC voting members such as New York Fed President Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Posen, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, St. Louis Fed President Mueser, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Kansas City Fed President Shultz. Through their comments on financial technology, economic prospects, and monetary policy, they are expected to send signals to the market. Their remarks are anticipated to provide important clues for understanding the Fed’s future policy stance.

US CPI and Employment Data as Turning Points for Policy Decisions

Uncertainty remains over whether the US Consumer Price Index will be released, and attention is also being paid to employment-related data such as new unemployment claims. Recent signs of a weakening labor market and doubts about AI valuation have heightened risk aversion in the market. Whether the US economy can avoid a hard landing and maintain a soft landing trajectory will be a key focus for future financial market developments.