Based on current market consensus and economists' forecasts, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) is almost certain to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% in the January 28, 2026, rate decision.

This meeting is considered a "no-surprise" event, with the main focus on Chair Powell's press conference (2:30 PM Eastern Time), where discussions may include future economic outlooks, inflation pressures, and potential rate cut paths, but no rate adjustments are expected in the short term.

This forecast is based on the following key points:
① Recent economic data (such as employment and inflation) indicate that the U.S. economy is stable, with no urgent signals to adjust rates.
② Market pricing shows a near 100% probability of holding steady, with no expectations for rate hikes or cuts.
③ The Federal Reserve's schedule confirms that this decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.

If there are surprises in the actual outcome (such as hawkish or dovish signals regarding future policy), it could impact risk assets.