#FedRateDecisionApproaches

✴️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference has concluded. Here's a concise and professional summary of the Fed's key messages to the market:
Interest rates were kept unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
The vote was 10-2; only two members voted for a rate cut, while no one voted for an increase.
Powell clearly stated: "A rate hike is not anyone's baseline scenario." This indicates that the tightening cycle has effectively ended.
✴️Key highlights:
While inflation remains high, much of the excess inflation is driven by tariffs. Demand-driven pressure is limited; core PCE, excluding tariff effects, is hovering around 2%.
Tariff-driven inflation is expected to peak in mid-2026 and then decline, potentially providing the Fed with room for easing.
The economy once again surprised with its strength: Growth is robust, and there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate. Current policy is considered sufficiently restrictive.
Future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis and based on data. The timing of the rate cuts has not yet been determined, but the next move is not expected to be a rate hike.
The US budget deficit is unsustainable; Powell emphasized that the problem needs to be addressed as soon as possible (this statement was one of the factors that drove gold prices to new highs).
The Fed maintains and will continue to maintain its independence; decisions will be based on objective data.
Temporary effects such as the government shutdown are expected to be offset this quarter; they are not seen as a structural risk.
The overall message is clear:
The tightening period is over. Inflationary pressure is decreasing, and tariffs remain the main risk factor. Markets are now expecting the start of a loosening (rate cut) cycle. The system is transitioning from restriction to stabilization.