New Dip Signal in Bitcoin Price: Largest Weekly Outflow Since November in US ETFs

According to SoSoValue data, a net outflow of $1.22 billion has occurred from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States over the past four days. This figure represents the highest weekly outflow recorded since November. During the period ending Thursday, withdrawals of $479.7 million and $708.7 million took place on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. During this period, Bitcoin lost 5% in value and has shown almost no change since the beginning of the year.

Weekly $1.22 Billion Outflow and Historical Bottom Pattern

Historical data shows that sudden and high-rate outflows from ETFs typically coincide with local bottom levels in Bitcoin prices. This pattern has repeated multiple times.

During the four-day withdrawal period in November totaling $1.22 billion, Bitcoin formed a bottom around $80,000 and then recovered to levels above $90,000 in the following days. A similar movement pattern appeared before President Trump’s tariff chaos in March 2025; at that time, Bitcoin dropped to $76,000. During the period of unwinding the new carry trade in August 2024, the largest cryptocurrency hit a bottom around $49,000. These historical examples demonstrate a strong relationship between ETF outflows and specific price levels.

$84,099 Average Cost Basis: Critical Support Level

The average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is currently at $84,099. According to Glassnode data, this price level has served as an important support zone. Especially when examining the pullback around $80,000 in November and the period leading up to April 2025, it is observed that these levels have constrained price movements.

The current situation indicates that approximately 63% of the invested Bitcoin wealth is positioned above an $88,000 average cost basis. This distribution suggests that the majority of investors are in profit at current levels. However, from a money management perspective, this group faces a certain resistance at the $88,000 level.

Concentration of Supply Between $80,000 and $90,000

On-chain indicators point to a significant concentration of supply between $85,000 and $90,000. This price band acts as an important resistance zone for sellers. Conversely, it is clearly seen that relatively weak support levels exist below $80,000.

This relationship between large outflows from ETFs and Bitcoin price bottoms reflects the behavioral characteristics of market participants. Institutional investors tend to reduce their positions at certain price levels, and these actions often coincide with the formation of price floors. Based on current data, the current ETF outflow rate and Bitcoin trading near $88,000 strengthen the likelihood of a local bottom forming in the near term.