CME FedWatch Tracker: The Probability of the Fed Holding Steady in January Exceeds 95%

StablecoinGuardian · 2026-01-30T07:14:35+00:00

Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January, suggesting strong confidence in their decision. For March, uncertainty increases, with a 20.7% chance of a rate cut.

StablecoinGuardian

2026-01-30 07:14:35

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According to ChainCatcher referencing data from CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January reaches 95%. Correspondingly, the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is only 5%. These figures reflect market expectations of a stable interest rate decision from the U.S. central bank this month.

Short-Term Outlook - High Probability of No Cut

The 95% probability of maintaining the current interest rate indicates strong market confidence in the Fed’s decision to hold steady in January. There is only a small 5% risk that the Fed might implement a 25 basis point cut. This reflects current inflation and economic growth conditions, where the Fed continues to keep rates high to control price pressures.

March Expectations - Unclear Outlook

Looking further ahead to March, market probabilities become less certain. The chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed is 20.7%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged remains dominant at 78.4%. There is only a 0.9% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. These figures suggest that the market still largely expects the Fed to maintain current rates, but there are signs that policy tightening could occur by the end of Q1.

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