Rupiah Remains Weak Ahead of Key Local Data

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The Indonesian rupiah dipped toward IDR 16,790 per dollar on Friday, extending losses from the prior session as expectations of lower domestic interest rates grew after the central bank signaled a stronger focus on boosting growth. This reinforced views that policy easing could come later this year after a total of 150bp cuts since September 2024. Sentiment was further weighed by caution ahead of key data releases next week, including January inflation, December trade figures, and Q4 GDP, amid concerns of slowing momentum in a fragile global and domestic outlook. The currency also faced pressure from a rout in local equities, as MSCI flagged transparency issues that raised risks of multi-billion-dollar foreign outflows. Monthly, the rupiah is on track to post its third straight fall, down around 0.8% so far. Globally, the dollar index firmed from a four-year low hit earlier this week, helped by a tentative U.S. deal to avoid a shutdown and anticipation of Trump’s Fed chair nomination.

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