Tonight's Big Move An analysis of Trump's bet on Kevin Walsh to serve as Federal Reserve Chair, attempting to 'loosen' the $36 trillion US debt: • Nominee Confirmation: The Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Walsh as Federal Reserve Chair. This choice seems unexpected because Kevin Walsh has historically been hawkish, criticizing Fed quantitative easing and Trump's rate-cutting policies. • Reasons for the Choice ◦ Surface Factors: Although Kevin Walsh is hawkish, he often criticizes Fed policies, aligning with Trump's tone; he has experience as a Fed governor, with backgrounds on Wall Street (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs) and Congress, making him popular on Wall Street and unlikely to face Senate opposition; choosing him can reassure markets that the Fed maintains a certain level of independence and can explain its stance to all parties. ◦ Deeper Reasons: Trump and Kevin Walsh share similar ideas, both wanting the Fed's monetary policy to coordinate with fiscal policy, thereby weakening Fed independence. Currently, US debt has reached $36 trillion, with interest payments exceeding military spending. Trump hopes the Fed will cooperate with fiscal deficits to lower debt costs, similar to the '1951 moment' when the Fed was subordinate to the Treasury after World War II, attempting to revert to the old practice of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. • Market Impact and Uncertainty: Kevin Walsh appears hawkish but is also willing to compromise. To secure the nomination, he has aligned with Trump's push for significant rate cuts. His election could weaken the Fed's actual independence, which may impact the crypto market, futures, and gold. Stay tuned.