Analysis of the Solana market structure: trend setup and current sentiment

Technical analysis of SOL indicates that the market is in a critical overbought phase. With the current price at $116.32 and a 5.53% decline over the past 24 hours, the Solana trend device demonstrates a classic correction after the previous upward movement. The current market sentiment remains ambivalent, but technical signals provide grounds for optimism among long-term participants.

📊 Market Snapshot: Structure and Current Sentiment of SOL

Looking at recent price history, it’s evident that Solana fluctuated within a range before correcting to current levels. With an ATH (all-time high) of $293.31, the current price around $116.32 indicates deep overvaluation and a significant rebound from local lows.

Key observations: • Current price: $116.32 (-5.53% over 24h) • Movement character: Healthy correction. The decline occurs on decreasing volumes, indicating no active selling pressure • Overall sentiment: The “Higher Highs / Higher Lows” structure remains intact on larger timeframes. As long as the market stays above key supports, the trend remains in force

📉 Indicator Analysis: Device of Technical Indicators

The technical setup of the indicators reveals the mechanics of the current movement:

RSI (4H) ~ 45-50 (Recovery): The Relative Strength Index has recovered from overbought levels (above 70) to a neutral zone. This means excess buying pressure has dissipated. Bulls have regained space for another upward impulse without indicator overheating.

EMA 20 (4H) ~ $118.00: The price is near or testing its short-term moving average. In strong trends, this line typically acts as a resilient zone where the price bounces and continues in the main trend direction.

Volumes: Decreasing volumes during the decline are a positive sign. The correction occurs on sluggish selling, indicating no mass panic exit. “Weak hands” are gradually leaving without sharp movements.

🎯 Critical Zones: Support and Resistance Devices

Market structure is defined by several key levels:

Support levels (pull zones): • $114.00 - $116.00: Current support zone. Here lies the EMA 20 and recent session lows • $110.00: Psychological barrier. Last week showed resilience in this region • $105.00: Ironclad support. Falling below this would break the local structure and open the way to deeper revaluations • $100.00: Critical level, below which there is a significant risk of trend reversal

Resistance levels (upward targets): • $120.00: First recovery target zone • $130.00: Intermediate barrier • $150.00: Key magnetic mark for medium-term positions

🔮 Two Development Scenarios

Scenario A: Bounce from support (Probability: 65%)

The price respects the current support zone ($114.00-$116.00) and begins a gradual reversal upward. Consolidation will take 2-4 hourly candles, followed by an impulse toward $120-$125. A sign of this scenario triggering is a 4-hour candle close with a long lower wick and volume migration upward.

Scenario B: Deep retest of critical levels (Probability: 35%)

Market makers may orchestrate a deeper shakeout, triggering stops of participants placed above critical levels. In this case, a correction to $110 or even $105 is possible, followed by a quick rebound and return above $116. This scenario would offer a better entry opportunity with minimal risk.

💡 Recommendations: Entry Strategy at Current Market Sentiment

The current market sentiment favors placing long positions on tactical pullbacks. Correction is a normal phase of a healthy trend, not its reversal.

Recommended Long Entry Strategy:

• Primary entry: The current zone of $115.50 - $117.00 is suitable for opening a position • Adding to position: Place a limit order to add at $110.50 (in case of a deeper test) • Stop-loss: Below $104.00 • First target: $125.00 • Second target: $140.00 • Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 (risk $12 for a potential $30 profit)

For participants already in a position: If you entered earlier at higher levels, this correction is predictable. As long as the price stays above $110, there’s no reason to panic. Maintain your position and use the pullback to add volume under favorable conditions.

Technical analysis indicates the market is preparing for the next move. The trend device remains bullish, and despite short-term fluctuations, participant sentiment supports the long-term growth trend. The key to success is disciplined risk management and patience for confirming signals.