Analysis: There is a short-term buying opportunity for Bitcoin. If the current support level is broken, the market may enter a capitulation phase.

On January 30, CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV discussed the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator and provided an analysis of Bitcoin’s future prospects. Since the beginning of 2024, despite Bitcoin’s price reaching new all-time highs from around $40,000 to over $100,000, the adjusted SOPR indicator has shown a completely different picture: forming a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This divergence reveals key information about investor behavior. Every time Bitcoin hits a new price peak, holders are taking profits earlier and earlier, indicating that confidence in each rally is gradually weakening. MorenoDV stated that the market is now at a critical turning point. The aSOPR consistently respects a descending channel. Each time it touches the upper boundary, it corresponds to a local price top, while touching the lower boundary indicates a local bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of this descending channel amid extreme fear, with approximately 1/3 of the total supply already in unrealized loss. Historically, such conditions (aSOPR below 1.0 + a large amount of unrealized losses) often present tactical buying opportunities before a short-term rebound. However, the market is now at a crossroads. If the current support level is broken and other technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, the market will enter a capitulation phase.