Benchmark: Quantum threat to Bitcoin is exaggerated - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

# Benchmark: Quantum Threat to Bitcoin Overhyped

Benchmark analysts characterized the quantum threat to the first cryptocurrency as “long-term” and “manageable.” In a new report, experts urged not to succumb to panic, reports The Block.

Researcher Mark Palmer acknowledged the theoretical vulnerability of Bitcoin’s cryptography but emphasized that it will take “decades, not years” before real attacks occur. Developers have enough time to adapt the protocol.

A powerful quantum computer could theoretically compute the “private key” based on public data. However, Palmer clarified that the threat concerns only coins on addresses with already exposed public keys.

Risk Assessment

According to Benchmark calculations, 1 to 2 million BTC are vulnerable. This refers to funds on reused addresses or “Satoshi-era” wallets.

Alternative estimates differ: researcher K33 Vetle Lunde pointed to 6.8 million BTC at risk. However, he noted the uncertainty of timelines and called for developer coordination rather than panic selling.

Expert forecasts regarding the timing of a real threat vary:

• Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya stated in November that risks would become relevant within the next 2-5 years;
• Cryptographer Adam Back disagreed with the pessimistic scenario, pushing the horizon of events to 20-40 years.

Benchmark also rejected the thesis about Bitcoin’s architecture being inflexible. Analysts recalled successful soft forks like Taproot and forecast a smooth transition of the network to quantum resistance.

Industry Preparation

Major players have already begun preparing for the post-quantum era:

• Ethereum Foundation formed a security group and allocated a $1 million research grant;
• Coinbase created an advisory council to assess risks and develop protection strategies.

Investors are also cautious: previously, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood excluded Bitcoin from the model portfolio, calling quantum technologies an existential threat to the network.

Recall that leading analyst _Checkonchain James Chek stated that the main reason for Bitcoin’s weakness is large-scale sales by long-term holders, not concerns about the asset’s long-term prospects.