If Vanke defaults this year, the impact on the Chinese economy will far exceed that of Evergrande. When Evergrande defaulted, people still said "bad students get expelled," blaming it on aggressive greed and self-inflicted consequences. But if a "good student" like Vanke also defaults, the problem might really not be with the student, but with the school itself. Vanke was among the earliest to deleverage, the earliest to call for survival, always restrained in expansion, backed by Shenzhen state-owned assets as a safety net, and now it has no more assets to collateralize.