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[January 30] Index valuation data( A-shares and Hong Kong stocks decline; Hong Kong stock index valuation table updated; "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide"
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Throughout January, the A-shares experienced the strongest opening in recent years, jumping from around 4 stars to over 3 stars.
The CSI All Share Index rose 5.75% in January.
Hong Kong stocks performed even better than A-shares. The Hang Seng Index increased by 6.85% in January.
2. However, such rapid increases from late December last year to January this year are not the norm.
As we have previously introduced, the bull market in A-shares often manifests as short-term rapid surges.
In this round of the bull market, such levels of rapid increase have only occurred during three periods.
• In the last two weeks of September 2024, the market rose 40%, setting the fastest increase record in A-shares in the past 10 years.
• In a few weeks of Q3 2025, the market rose 20%. Among them, the ChiNext Board surged 50% in a single quarter, marking the largest quarterly increase in the past 10 years.
• From late December 2025 to late January, the market increased by 15%. Small and medium-cap stocks led the rally. The CSI 500 rose 27%, reaching a high valuation again after 10 years.
And as valuations increase, each wave of gains gradually diminishes.
The most vigorous market rises occur around 5 points; somewhat less at 4 points; and even less at 3 points.
Approximately 7% of the time, the A-shares market experiences significant surges.
Most of the remaining time is characterized by declines or sideways consolidation.
For example, from October 2024 to June 2025, the market oscillated for more than half a year; from October to December 2025, it declined for over two months.
But it is precisely these 7% of big surge periods that contribute the majority of the bull market’s returns.
When lightning strikes, we need to be there.