Focus on the key threshold: The market is operationally balanced: the probability of short-term growth is estimated at 55%, and of decline — at 45%. The key battle is around 85,000 USDT: a breakout above will confirm a bullish scenario, while a pullback below 80,000 USDT will activate short positions. $BTC

Bullish scenario: Appointment of a crypto-friendly Fed chair, increasing institutional interest, and positive signals from elite accounts (long/short = 2.18) create potential for testing 85,000 USDT. ETH and XRP demonstrate volume stabilization, which boosts confidence in the sector.
Short-term long position 📈
Entry: 82,000 USDT (50 % of position)
Stop-loss: 80,000 USDT
Take-profit: 88,000 USDT

Bearish scenario: ETF outflows, persistent whale pressure, and weakening mining increase the risk of a short-term decline. RSI and MACD do not yet confirm a reversal. A break below 80,000 USDT will break the upward structure.
Short-term short position 📉
Entry: 84,500 USDT (40 % of position)
Stop-loss: 86,000 USDT
Take-profit: 78,000 USDT