Discuss the three major macro events this week.

Currently, the transmission chain affecting the market mainly involves interest rate expectations and the strength of the US dollar, followed by judgments of positive or negative signals.

The biggest suspense is the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing (QRA).

In fact, it's easier to judge if you think of it as the Treasury Department borrowing money:

February 2nd (Monday): Release of refinancing estimates.

February 4th (Wednesday): Official quarterly refinancing announcement.

We all know that under the backdrop of policy interest rates remaining high (in the 3.5%–3.75% range), the market has an almost pathological sensitivity to long-term supply, which has already been demonstrated in recent days.

Of course, I think the worst-case scenario might be something like this: the Treasury Department hints at issuing more long-term bonds, causing the 10-year/30-year US Treasury yields to soar, which then leads to a continued strengthening of the dollar, a decline in cryptocurrencies, and a drop in tech stocks.

This is probably the biggest risk recently and is worth paying attention to.

The second event is the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, which will be announced today and on the 4th. As mentioned before,

The good news from ISM and PMI is actually bad news—if the economy is too hot, the Federal Reserve won't rush to cut rates, leading to an upward revision of rate expectations.

The third is not a single data point but a set of US employment data, listed in chronological order:

Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report
Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims
Friday: January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

The Federal Reserve's lack of confidence to cut rates stems from strong employment data, with no signs of a massive unemployment wave as some might imagine. These data are likely to indicate a mild cooling, with some positive signals but not much.

Overall, the weekly tone won't change much; employment data can probably be viewed as a bullish sweet spot, as long as the data doesn't worsen enough to raise recession expectations.