February 4 | ETH Price Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $2,265.31 (As of: February 4, 2026, 10:15)

Short-term Outlook: Daily RSI at 27.41 indicates oversold conditions, combined with a negative funding rate (-0.11%), suggesting strong market expectations for a rebound from oversold levels. Despite $250 million in long positions being liquidated within 24 hours causing panic, on-chain fundamentals (TVL, staking queues) remain solid. The recent decline is judged to be a “panic sell-off” rather than a fundamental breakdown. In the short term, caution is advised for further support retests and volatility.

Key Support: $2,156 (Bollinger Band lower band)

Key Resistance: $2,725 (EMA 20) up to $2,837 area

In-Depth Technical Analysis

Technical Indicator Status

ETH is currently in a significant oversold state, with multiple timeframes showing extreme pessimism:

RSI Indicators:

• 1-hour: 49.34 (Neutral leaning weak)
• 4-hour: 36.53 (Approaching oversold)
• Daily: 27.41 (Significantly oversold, below 30)

The daily RSI at 27.41 is at an extreme low over the past year, historically indicating a potential short-term rebound opportunity. Statistically, when ETH’s daily RSI drops below 30, the average rebound over the next 7 trading days is about 8-12%.

MACD Indicators:

• 1-hour: -16.22, histogram turns positive at 3.88 (short-term momentum improving)
• 4-hour: -103.00, histogram at 12.13 (weakening downward momentum)
• Daily: -210.71, histogram at -79.48 (still in a bearish trend)

The deep negative MACD on the daily suggests a medium- to long-term bearish trend, but the histogram turning positive on shorter timeframes indicates diminishing downward momentum in the near term.

Moving Averages System: Current price at $2,265 is well below all major moving averages:

• EMA20: $2,725 (-16.9%)
• SMA20: $2,837 (-20.2%)
• SMA50: $2,970 (-23.7%)
• SMA200: $3,642 (-37.8%)

The large gap from the 200-day moving average (-37.8%) shows a deep correction, but historically such extreme deviations tend not to last long.

Bollinger Bands Analysis: Daily Bollinger Bands are highly expanded, with the lower band at $2,156, very close to the current price, indicating strong support. The bandwidth has reached $1,362, the widest in six months, signaling extreme volatility and often foreshadowing trend reversals.

Market Sentiment and Derivatives Indicators

Open Interest and Leverage Risks: Open interest in ETH futures is at $53.2 billion, relatively stable despite the price drop, indicating active participation without mass withdrawals.

Funding Rate Analysis: Average funding rate at -0.1109%, slightly negative, favoring shorts but not excessively so. Historically, when funding rates turn slightly negative after a deep decline, it can signal a short-term bottom.

Liquidation Data: In the past 24 hours, total market liquidations reached $296 million, with longs accounting for 71.8% (longs to shorts ratio 2.54). Such extreme long liquidations often occur at panic bottoms, reducing selling pressure as leveraged longs are forced out.

On-Chain Fundamentals

Despite the sharp price decline, Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals remain robust:

TVL (Total Value Locked): ETH-denominated TVL is near all-time highs, indicating capital is not leaving the ecosystem en masse.

Staking Demand: ETH staking queues average around 70 days, showing strong institutional interest in locking funds.

Network Activity: User numbers and protocol revenues continue to grow, with token price lagging behind fundamental metrics.

Most developers and analysts believe the current decline is driven more by market noise and leverage liquidations rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

External Factors

Macroeconomic Environment:

• The US House has approved a funding bill ending the government shutdown, reducing some political uncertainty.
• Fed officials suggest a need to cut interest rates by about 1 percentage point this year, but Fed Chair nominee Warsh is perceived as hawkish.
• Strong US economic data has pushed up Treasury yields, exerting pressure on risk assets.

ETF Capital Flows: Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive months, totaling $6.18 billion, the longest outflow since inception. ETF investors’ average cost basis is around $90,200, with most positions currently at a loss, which dampens overall market sentiment.

Market Structure Changes: Bitcoin hash rate has fallen 24%, reaching an 8-month low, as some miners shift to AI computing. This structural change could impact long-term confidence in crypto mining economics.

Risk Assessment and Trading Strategies

Downside Risks:

• A break below $2,156 support could lead to further decline toward the psychological $2,000 level.
• Continued ETF outflows may trigger broader investor confidence crises.
• Macroeconomic uncertainties could further suppress risk asset valuations.

Upside Opportunities:

• Extreme oversold conditions increase the likelihood of a technical rebound.
• Negative funding environment may trigger short squeezes.
• Solid on-chain fundamentals provide long-term support once panic subsides.

Trading Recommendations: Short-term traders can consider building long positions in the $2,150–2,200 range with stops below $2,100. Initial targets are $2,450 (10% rebound) and $2,700 (challenging EMA20 resistance).

Medium- to long-term investors should monitor ETF fund flow signals and macroeconomic policy developments. Ethereum’s strong on-chain fundamentals suggest potential for a rebound and long-term value recovery after panic subsides.