First Capital Futures: Cost support combined with cold repair expectations, leading to a strong rebound in glass futures prices

In the spot market, the spot price of float glass is 1106 RMB/ton (+0). Prices in Shahe region remain mostly stable, with some small increases of 10 RMB/ton, as downstream companies stock up appropriately. The East China market transactions are relatively weak, with little change in white glass prices. Ultra-white mainstream companies have lowered their prices, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing to meet immediate needs.
In terms of supply, there are 213 domestic glass production lines in operation, with 83 lines temporarily shut for maintenance. The nationwide daily melting volume of float glass is 151,000 tons. Last week, the total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass nationwide was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes from the previous week, a decrease of 1.22%, and up 21.24% year-on-year. Currently, production companies are accumulating inventory, and some midstream regions are reaching high inventory levels. This week, production line activity is expected to remain relatively stable. Post-holiday, some lines are still expected to reduce output; if plans proceed as scheduled, supply may continue to decline.
In terms of demand, the average order days for deep-processing sample enterprises nationwide is 9.3 days, up 7.9% week-on-week and up 86.4% year-on-year. Downstream demand is seasonally weakening, with low enthusiasm for procurement in mid- and downstream sectors, mainly focusing on receivables. The pressure on raw glass producers to build inventory has increased.
Overall, costs for coal and soda ash have rebounded significantly, boosting market sentiment. Coupled with the post-holiday maintenance expectations providing some support to futures prices, attention should be paid to changes in costs and production line activity. (First Capital Futures)