First Capital Futures: Cost Support, Soda Ash Futures Halt Decline and Rebound

On the supply side, Xuzhou Fengcheng is scheduled for maintenance on February 4, Southern Alkali Industry equipment is under maintenance, and Boyuan Silver Root load has increased. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has slightly increased to 83.80%. Last week, soda ash manufacturers’ inventory was 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week, a rise of 1.52%. Orders pending shipment for soda ash companies have decreased and are currently maintained around 10 days. There are not many maintenance activities for soda ash plants, and overall capacity utilization remains at a relatively high level.

On the demand side, downstream pre-holiday stocking is basically complete, and subsequent restocking intentions have weakened. This week, it is expected that float glass production lines will operate stably, with an estimated weekly output of 1.057 million tons; photovoltaic glass production lines are expected to remain stable, with an estimated on-site capacity of 608,700 tons of photovoltaic glass this week. Viewpoint: The rebound in coal prices is strong, and cost support has increased, driving soda ash prices higher. However, from the supply and demand perspective, current soda ash supply remains at a relatively high level, and downstream float glass is still expected to undergo cold repairs after the holiday, which may suppress the rebound space of soda ash futures. Cross-commodity focus on short pure soda ash and long glass arbitrage. (First Capital Futures)