Analysis: Bitcoin will not repeat the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022, nor is it a long-term investor entry opportunity

Odaily Planet Daily News: K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% since its October high, with an 11% decline in the past week alone, significantly affected by a global decrease in risk appetite. Although recent price movements show “disturbing similarities” to the deep sell-offs in 2018 and 2022, Lunde emphasized “this time is different,” and he does not expect an 80% peak-to-trough retracement like in the previous two cycles.

Lunde pointed out that the current market environment differs from previous cycles due to increased institutional adoption, inflows into regulated products, and a loose interest rate environment. Meanwhile, several indicators commonly used to identify market bottoms have started flashing signals:

1. On February 2, Bitcoin experienced a percentile trading day reaching 90, with high trading volume exceeding $8 billion in a single day, and the price retested the lows of 2025.

2. In the derivatives market, open interest and funding rates have both fallen into extreme negative territory, accompanied by approximately $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Historically, such situations often occur alongside rebounds.

Vetle Lunde emphasized that although bottom signals are emerging, they are not yet conclusive. Similar extreme trading volumes and derivatives indicators have appeared during false rebounds or mid-cycle corrections. Short-term key support levels are around $74,000; a break below could accelerate downward movement, with targets near the November 2021 high of around $69,000 or the 200-week moving average at approximately $58,000. Overall, Vetle Lunde believes that long-term holders are not under urgent selling pressure, and current prices present an opportunity for long-term investors to enter. This does not indicate a repeat of the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022. (The Block)