$ETH Today Liang Xi (the contract expert, the one who made millions of U with small capital by long and short positions) has once again issued a stern warning: ETH is highly likely to fall below $1000, with the main goal of "blowing up" Yi Lihua's massive long position. One sentence directly caused an explosion in the community: on one hand, shouting "Liang Xi is manipulating to harvest the leeks," and on the other, saying "Are institutions/traders really going to do this?"

Let's first clarify the key facts (based on public posts and community estimates):

1. Current status of Yi Lihua's position
- Rumored to hold about 100,000 ETH (spot + leveraged loans), with total exposure once exceeding 2 billion USD.
- Average entry price around 2000-3000 (bottomed out near 3000 after clearing at 4500).
- Liquidation/bankruptcy line community estimates between $1685 and $1866, most commonly around $1850.
- Yi Lihua's latest statement: As long as ETH stays above $1000, the position is absolutely safe; he is well prepared and can repay most of the loans at any time, unlikely to be liquidated easily.

2. Liang Xi's logic (why say it will drop to $1000)
- Today, he chatted with a contract trader who said they need to push Yi Lihua's position to stop-loss levels before the decline halts (similar to the 2022 bear bottom smashing Cai Wensheng).
- Currently, in a bear market with oscillating downward, wave ABC's wave C bottom, with the 2100-2200 dense trading zones having been pierced multiple times.
- Institutions/market makers (BlackRock, Wintermute, etc.) are smashing the market with ETFs, small whales are mostly stopping losses, and next are large liquidation players like Yi Lihua.
- After smashing the big players, panic selling pressure may exhaust itself, possibly leading to a technical rebound (classic "sacrifice" logic).

3. Opposing/bullish voices (mainstream views)
- Yi Lihua repeatedly emphasizes: the bull market trend remains unchanged, ETH's long-term target is over 20,000, and a few hundred dollar oscillation is normal; strong US stocks + stablecoin globalization + US crypto strategic reserves mean that even if bears go crazy, they can't turn the tide.
- Some suggest using Collar options to hedge (buy puts for downside protection + sell calls to offset costs), reducing the probability of liquidation below $1000 to less than 5%.
- Reversal conspiracy theory: with too much attention and crowded shorts, once it really drops to around $1800, it might instead trigger a short squeeze and profit massively (similar to Cai Wensheng's narrow escape back then).

4. Community sentiment distribution
- Bearish camp: Liang Xi fans + contract traders, shouting "bear market is a cannibal," "rebound is short," "sending Xiao Yi to deliver takeout."
- Bullish camp: Yi Lihua's hardcore fans + long-term holders, believing "the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish," "bottom-fishing logic remains unchanged."
- Spectators: watching the rollercoaster story of "millions of USD principal losing billions" and "fluctuations of billions after sleeping."

It can be said that Liang Xi's rhetoric is very sharp, precisely hitting the extreme fear in the market (big V sacrifice = sacrifice), but the difficulty and cost of truly smashing to $1000 are extremely high (requires continuous massive dumping + liquidity exhaustion).
Yi Lihua is not purely stubborn; he has hedging preparations and long-term faith, so the probability of holding the liquidation line is higher.
In the short term, ETH is likely to fluctuate between 2000-2500, with the final direction depending on institutional intentions and macro factors (Federal Reserve, Yen, US stocks).
Liang Xi profits from the rhythm, Yi Lihua bets on faith, and you are betting on life. $BTC ‌ ‌