⚓ THE $1.70 RECLAIM: HOW "WEAK HAND" DISTRIBUTION IS PAVING THE WAY FOR AN XRP RECOVERY

XRP is navigating a complex period of redistribution as February 2026 unfolds, with technical weakness clashing against emerging on-chain strength. While the token remains down 25% for the month and is trapped in a multi-year falling channel, a significant shift in holder behavior is occurring. As of February 4, 2026, speculative traders often dubbed “weak hands” have slashed their supply share from 16.8% to 12.9%, offloading over 396 million XRP onto exchanges. However, this selling is being met with high-conviction accumulation from long-term holders and a new 520 million XRP cost-basis cluster near $1.57. This divergence, coupled with a rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), suggests that a technical rebound toward $1.70 is becoming increasingly likely.

The Great Deleveraging: Speculative Holders Exit

The primary source of XRP’s recent exchange inflow is not long-term capitulation, but rather a rapid exit by short-term traders.

• HODL Wave Shift: Reactive cohorts (1-week to 3-month holders) have aggressively cut their exposure, reducing their combined share of the supply by nearly 4% since February 1.
• Mid-Term Benefit: While this selling has kept the price pinned near $1.48, the removal of speculative capital often allows for healthier recoveries. By cleaning out “fast money” that typically sells into every minor bounce, the market structure becomes more resilient for long-term investors.

The 520 Million XRP Support Cluster

Despite the surface-level bearishness, a massive new foundation of support has formed just below the current price.

• Cost-Basis Heatmap: A major accumulation zone has appeared between $1.57 and $1.58, where more than 520 million XRP recently changed hands.
• Strategic Cushion: When a high volume of supply is concentrated at a single price level, it creates a formidable cushion. Buyers at this level are likely to defend their entry points, providing the “smart money” floor needed to stabilize the asset against broader market volatility.

Rebound Targets: Reclaiming the $1.70 Barrier

A bullish divergence in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates that institutional-style capital is quietly entering the market even as prices trend lower.

• The CMF Divergence: While XRP’s price has been drifting down, the CMF has been trending higher, approaching the neutral zero line. A cross into positive territory would confirm a definitive shift in capital participation.
• Technical Levels: * The Support:****$1.48 remains the absolute line in the sand. A break here would expose a deeper 25% decline toward $1.25 or even $0.94.
  • The Target: If $1.48 holds, the primary objective for bulls is reclaiming $1.70. A sustained move above the $1.97 trendline would flip the market structure from bearish to neutral, opening a path toward $2.42.

Essential Financial Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. XRP price rebound projections and the $1.70 target are based on technical indicators and on-chain data as of February 4, 2026. Market conditions are subject to extreme volatility; technical structures like falling channels and support clusters do not guarantee future performance. Exchange inflows (396M XRP) still represent a significant near-term risk to price stability. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

Do you think the 520 million XRP support cluster at $1.57 is enough to stop the bleed, or is the $1.25 target inevitable?