Indonesia 2025 GDP Growth Below Forecast

Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.11% in 2025, missing the official target of 5.2%, reflecting the impact of natural disasters in three provinces last year, though marking the strongest growth in three years. The acceleration was mainly driven by faster growth in private consumption (4.98% vs 4.94% in Q3) and fixed investment (5.09% vs 4.61%). Meanwhile, export growth accelerated (7.03% vs 6.85%), despite the imposition of new US tariffs, while import growth eased (4.77% vs 8.15%), reflecting weakening domestic demand pressured by softer purchasing power and a depreciating rupiah. For 2026, the GDP growth target remains at 5.2%. Last month, the central bank maintained its GDP growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% for 2026.