The potential for Ethereum to break out, reminiscent of the bullish market in 2021, is increasing—this is linked to the global liquidity mechanism that influences market movements.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $2,140, and the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations is once again drawing attention. Compared to the past few years, it has experienced a 21.85% decline over the past year, but multiple analysts point out that the global liquidity patterns that drove a significant rise in 2021 are now reemerging. This historical correlation could influence ETH’s future price movements.

The 2021 Scenario Where Global Liquidity Led ETH

According to reports from Cointelegraph, several analysts are focusing on a historic cycle linking global liquidity, the US small-cap index, and Ethereum’s price trend. In 2021, shortly after global liquidity surpassed a critical threshold, ETH experienced a sharp surge of 226%.

During that period, the realized price of ETH accumulation addresses (addresses with long-term holders concentrated) reached around $2,700, reinforcing structural support levels. Currently, the realized price of these accumulation addresses remains near $2,720, and similar accumulation signals are being observed.

The driving force from global liquidity tends to have a greater impact on establishing long-term trends rather than short-term technical indicators. The 226% increase from March to November 2021 supports this theory.

The Unexpected Leading Relationship Between the US Small-Cap Index (Russell 2000) and ETH

Crypto analyst Sykodelics pointed out an important correlation structure: a three-stage sequence of global liquidity → Russell 2000 → Ethereum. In this pattern, the Russell 2000 index leads the overall US small-cap market, followed by ETH.

Interestingly, in past cycles, ETH lagged this movement by several weeks to months. In the 2021 case, ETH began a major rally about 119 days after the Russell 2000 confirmed a breakout in March 2021. This time lag is not likely coincidental but reflects the psychological price discovery process of market participants.

BecauseBitcoin CEO Max has stated on X that the Russell 2000 has historically led ETH into a price discovery phase, and with the index recently reaching a new all-time high of 2,738, there is a suggestion that a similar scenario could unfold again. If this correlation persists, around March 2026 could be the breakout period for ETH.

On-Chain Accumulation Acceleration Signals Bullish Momentum

Data from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows that the realized price of ETH accumulation addresses continues to rise and is now near $2,720. The realized price represents the average purchase price of all holders, and its proximity to the current market price suggests active accumulation.

Historically, the realized price has served as an important support level for long-term holders. It has acted as a significant support line during past downturns. With the realized price now close to the spot price, it indicates ongoing accumulation even in unstable market conditions.

Analyst estimates suggest that even if ETH tests this support level again, the decline could be limited to about 7%, with a potential local bottom around $2,720. This zone also aligns with external liquidity zones, where rapid market reactions are expected.

Conclusion – The Next Scenario Indicated by Multiple Indicators

The current environment, with improving global liquidity, a leading breakout of the Russell 2000, and evidence of on-chain accumulation, strongly resembles the 2021 market pattern. Considering the 119-day lag, around March 2026 could be a key period for ETH. If the correlation between liquidity conditions and macro indicators holds, a significant move similar to the 226% surge in 2021 cannot be ruled out.