2.5 Cycle Review Post: Hesitant yet receptive, look for emotional recovery tomorrow

[Stock Forum]

Market Overview

2.1 trillion yuan, very good. If next week continues to shrink below 2 trillion yuan,

the market centered around sectors will be completely gone.

Just developing so sluggishly until after the New Year.

The market oscillates around the middle band with weakness.

Two possible paths: oscillation slightly above the middle band and upward, which is very difficult because

there could be sudden sector explosions, but they are unsustainable.

Oscillation below the middle band, then it’s time for individual stock popularity and groupings.

Profitability Effect

Strong Divergence

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This is understood as the oscillation after the second decline rebound.

The second rebound after the decline has not ended; it’s not the start of a third decline.

It’s a continuation of the decline correction in the oscillation direction.

So tomorrow’s normal expectation should be a strong correction.

I haven’t reviewed the data yet; I will analyze it after review and update everyone.

The data review hints whether tomorrow will be a correction or a divergence expectation.

Sentiment Cycle

The retreat ends again.

Once again, it enters chaos.

Chaos does not mean no divergence.

The market is very weak here,

so the rebound is not strong.

I don’t understand why there’s a need to start a third decline here.

This is understood as divergence during the correction of the second decline.

Because the leading sectors—non-ferrous metals, gold, and the complex structure of the initial decline—

showed a complicated decline pattern.

After weak correction of the first decline, it directly plunged into the second decline.

Tomorrow will be the true bottoming point for non-ferrous metals and gold.

So, sentiment is expected to strongly recover tomorrow.

Theme Cycle

Follows the chaos rhythm: strong sectors weaken, weak sectors strengthen.

Yesterday was the weakest,

AI applications.

Today was supposed to be the strongest, but didn’t reach 4000.

It pulled back in the afternoon.

Anchored around three major high-position core stocks:

Lio, Zhit, Blue. The trend here is prone to a second decline.

Zhit is close to breaking the low point of the first decline for confirmation.

In the morning trading, this direction was flowing back.

But using low positions to rebound, the momentum is weak.

Looking at Tiexin Technology, Xinhua, Sanjiang Shopping—all follow Alibaba AI logic.

Adding intra-day strong consumption.

Star Toys follow Yuanbao AI logic.

These are all low-position late-stage catch-up rallies.

But the high-position AI giants are all negative feedback, which is quite confusing.

It’s hard to effectively position these catch-up rallies.

Because if high-position stocks are pushed to new highs on the right side,

they can be called the main upward phase four catch-up. And the core high-position stocks with leading status open a second decline.

They are counter-trend feedback catch-up rallies. These kinds of stocks without a sector main upward trend protection are prone to breakouts and fall.

Tiandi Online leads the third stage of main upward catch-up.

Zhejiang Wenlian shows performance in the second and third stages, with clear breakout and group rally.

Wangsu Technology, Lobster’s independent logic.

They diverge from the high-position three giants and aim to gamble on group crossing, risking failure 10 out of 9 times.

Yesterday’s strongest sector was photovoltaics—disappointing.

Today’s trading was far below expectations.

Left a GCL System Integration as a survivor.

This direction is the strongest resonance point of this rebound.

Yesterday showed separation—commercial aerospace moving independently.

It needs three consecutive strong days, then divergence should be benign to become a new main line.

Today’s disappointment returns it to the original pattern, still a catch-up rally in commercial aerospace.

Commercial Aerospace

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The current understanding of the sector is not that a third decline has started.

It’s understood as a correction after the second decline oscillation; tomorrow’s downward move can be seen as a third decline.

Tomorrow’s upward expectation still aligns with the continuation of the second decline correction.

High-position stocks combined with space photovoltaics are severely negatively feedbacked, causing sector divergence today.

Then funds continue to gamble on Wednesday’s Chang Zheng 10A, which is recoverable.

The core is Julli Rigging. It can’t be the new leader because its gains are too low.

It could be a new sub-sector catch-up core or a group rally stock.

Yesterday’s low positions expanded today. Today’s low positions include Shenjian, both related to upstream raw materials of rigging.

The largest recent gains on the right side are still Western Materials with a good-looking chart.

Intraday Strongest
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Pan-Consumer**

This traditional consumer sector, ahead of the stocks, Xinhua Department Store is very weak.

But local consumption is very strong,

such as liquor—Huangting Liquor.

Film and TV—Hengdian Film & TV.

Low positions combined with Fujian’s tourism and food.

Adding Alibaba AI’s consumption logic.

Other sectors are not summarized here.

The shrinking volume index is a chaotic market; AI hardware—whether overseas or domestic—cannot become mainstream.

Gold and non-ferrous metals, as mentioned yesterday, are in a decline phase; today continued downward.

This is no different from the first wave of retreat in commercial aerospace.

After weak correction of the first decline, it directly enters the second decline.

But this is called a complex first decline, meaning there’s no real bottoming; the real bottom is expected tomorrow.

So, the market has a high probability of correction tomorrow because the core mainstream main line is non-ferrous metals and gold.

Style and Market Bias
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Likely to focus on trend-based main upward movement**
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With secondary board as support**

Quantitative Era
Objectively, beating quantitative methods is impossible; only human subjectivity can surpass them.
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My subjective view is:**

AI applications, the second wave of extension four, and commercial aerospace are all beyond expectations.

The normal expectation here is:

In each hot sector, select the top recognizable stocks, with a higher probability of forming recognizable groupings.

Maintain the same view

Chaos period: reduce positions, lower expectations

Additionally, regarding the expectation of stocks crossing the year-end in groups,

This is nonsense—no stock can truly cross into the next year.

Who it is doesn’t matter; the process of betting is what’s important.

In other words, current funds are using this expectation to create year-end妖股 (special stocks).

So, you can choose strong group stocks around this idea.

But as the year approaches, these stocks need to be realized.

Aerospace Development

Afternoon didn’t move the initial positions

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Yesterday’s last hour was a doji shadow.

So today’s normal expectation is to have a low point.

In the late session, I thought it might close with a bullish doji,

but it almost turned into a bearish doji again.

It’s very necessary to grab the closing price.

Because after a doji star, tomorrow is expected to open with oscillation.

The morning rally lasted an hour, then three hours of distribution.

This pattern has repeated for two days.
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The morning’s rapid rise, a straight line in the time chart, is driven by funds.**
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The slow decline afterward reflects the true market consensus.**

We can’t use conspiracy theories to say that the morning rally was just to dump later.

But the funds that drove the morning rally, after reaching the moving average cost from yesterday,

found that this stock cannot form market consensus because the selling pressure is too heavy.

Speculative capital igniting is actually a test—testing the market’s collective strength and direction.

They see that the top cannot be bought out, with overwhelming selling pressure like a tsunami,

so they won’t push it hard anymore. At most, they maintain the order book.

Because the market’s collective strength is wrong.

A good market consensus should be: after speculative capital ignites, a slight pullback, retail and other off-market funds

come in to buy, then speculative capital ignites again, sealing the move.

Or if they find the true market sentiment is not actively selling, the intraday will show sideways consolidation.

In the afternoon, speculative capital will try to ignite again to test recognition.

Today’s aerospace development market consensus is downward.

After two days of grinding, the left-side trapped positions and right-side profit-taking have exchanged enough chips.

Tomorrow is critical: a strong upward move with a long candle is a shakeout.

A long downward candle would be disastrous—funds would have failed to guide the market and exit.

Pingtan Development

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Tomorrow’s high open followed by a one-hour rise to the board is expected.

The selling pressure above is very heavy, relying entirely on strength.

Without strength, the left-side trapped pressure is very heavy.

The first resistance level is at the limit-up position.

Jingtou Development

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Industry chain dominates.

Stock nature is very poor; historically, it peaks and then drops sharply.

Believe it early, or it’s hard to catch the bottom later.

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Who asked for louder videos yesterday? Is it loud enough now?**

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Deep learning resources can be found on the blogger’s homepage.

Below is a collection of publicly available articles on dry skills.

Dry skills collection (large number of dry articles) directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB
Historical review of sentiment cycles—learning from history to understand rise and fall. Directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLnbweBJA
Sentiment cycle video explanation—everyone says it’s good, why not take a look?

https://www.tgb.cn/a/22nLmcWyh3R

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Disclaimer: I am only recording my own operations and do not force everyone to follow. Please trade cautiously. This blog only documents my own actions.
(Investing involves risks; trade carefully. Plans are always faster than changes. Follow the market movements. The content is for personal reference and record only, reflecting my understanding of the market. It does not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk!)