Secondary correction does not imply a bearish outlook. Where is the certainty in the ice point rebound game? (Review as of 2026.02.05)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today’s Shanghai Composite Index -0.64%, ChiNext Index -1.55%, STAR 50 Index -1.44%, total market turnover 21,762 billion, 1,618 stocks up, 3,719 stocks down, market-wide turnover compared to yesterday -304.7 billion.

Overall Market Sentiment: Divergence and Follow-through Decline
Number of limit-up stocks: 44 (yesterday: 68)
Number of 20-cent limit-up stocks: 4 (yesterday: 9)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 10 (yesterday: 13)
Number of limit-down stocks: 15 (yesterday: 5)
Today’s break rate: 18.5% (yesterday: 21.8%)
Today’s first-limit success rate: 12.7% (yesterday: 15.2%)

Today’s Major Stocks with Large Moves
Mingdiao Co., Ltd. -20, consecutive limit-up
Before 9:45 AM opening, whether major stocks can quickly recover from yesterday’s large moves is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High-Volume Surprising Stocks in Bidding
Zhejiang Wenlian

Global Sector Chain Summary:
4-limit: Minbao Optoelectronics (acquisition of equity)
3-limit: Hanjian Heshan (restructuring), Jingtou Development (urban circle)
2-limit: Kuncai Technology (Fujian, chemicals, batteries), Fengbei Biological (chemicals), Shaanxi Black Cat (coal), Hangzhou Jebai (consumer), Kailong High-tech (equity acquisition), GCL Integration (space photovoltaic), Xingmin Zhitong (autonomous driving)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Point Analysis:
Decrease in limit-up stocks in low position range, stable in mid-low limit-up stocks, break rate stable, increase in limit-down stocks in mid-high position range, total market turnover/market size ratio at 0.19, historically low.
Compared to yesterday, the most notable change is a significant increase in limit-down stocks, indicating secondary correction suppression of sentiment. Currently, it is a chaotic cycle testing phase.

Sentiment Temperature: Sentiment at 10 Ice Points

Tomorrow’s Short-term Market Sentiment Anchor Stocks:
TianDi Online, Minbao Guangdian, Hunan Silver
Before 9:45 AM opening, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchoring of these stocks will signal market bullish or bearish sentiment temperature.

Recent Strong Sectors, Daily Top Sectors, and Notable Stocks:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
Sector distribution is concentrated in space photovoltaic, computing power supplies, semiconductors, precious metals, and other directions, indicating repeated oscillation of hot topics and divergence in the continuity of aggressive stocks.
Position and structure are mainly in the median trend structure, represented by Jiejia Weichuang, Taichen Guang, Zhongheng Electric, etc.

Profit Effect -
Sector shows no obvious profit effect, with some distribution in consumption, AI applications, Fujian, and other directions, indicating weak rotation trends across sectors.
Position and structure show no clear profit effect, with some in different structures, represented by Pingtan Development, TianDi Online, etc.

Capital Flow Summary -
Yesterday’s strong space photovoltaic sector suddenly saw capital exit, with a secondary correction in the Silver sector. Meanwhile, some funds flowed back into AI applications for partial recovery. Most funds still favor consumer defensive sectors. Currently, aside from some independently controlled stocks, capital flow direction remains uncertain.

III. Sector Analysis:

Commercial Aerospace (SpaceX, Space Computing) -
In the first phase of trial-and-error cycle.

Today’s commercial aerospace bidding phase, the previously strongest space photovoltaic sector, with core stocks like Shuangliang Energy Saving, Autowei, Jingsheng Electromechanical, all opened low. Similarly, core aerospace development stocks like Western Materials, Chengchang Technology also collectively showed negative feedback, indicating overall divergence.

After opening, leading stocks mostly opened low and declined, with only some like GCL Integration, Julli Suiwu oscillating and strengthening. Capital battles among stocks, with some relatively active like Aerospace Development, Western Materials, Shenjian Shares oscillating upward, showing only partial resilience.

Today’s space photovoltaic sector’s pattern is similar to the previous explosive day that collapsed the next day. As previously analyzed, this wave of photovoltaic is mainly driven by quantitative arbitrage funds, with small sector capacity, not enough to be a main trend. The upside is limited to some truly benefiting companies, with only a few “shovel companies” having potential for rotation and oscillation. Participation should focus on identifying these “shovel companies” with embedded trends. For ultra-short traders, sectors lacking sustained or sector-wide effects are not suitable for participation.

AI Applications -
In the fourth stage of trend cycle.
Stage 1 led by Blue Cursor, followed by Lio Shares, Yidian Tianxia.
Stage 2 led by Lio Shares, followed by others.
Stage 3 led by Zhejiang Wenlian, followed by others.
Stage 4 led by Tiandi Online, followed by others.

After yesterday’s post-market clarification of misjudged signals, today’s AI application bidding phase shows some anomalies. Leading stocks like Zhejiang Wenlian surged unexpectedly with high volume, low-priced Yao Wang Technology also surged, and Tiandi Online, which had negative feedback yesterday, opened flat with signs of recovery. Capacity stocks like Blue Cursor and Zhitexin Materials opened lower, so no collective strong buying signals.

After opening, Zhejiang Wenlian and Tiandi Online oscillated and strengthened, Yao Wang Technology quickly moved up, but other leading stocks like Blue Cursor and Lio Shares did not follow, showing no strong recovery signals. The overall pattern is more like a trend of capital holding and group behavior.

Overall, AI applications currently lack strong market expectations. Some funds are still testing and oscillating based on upcoming industry catalysts. After continuous divergence and further shorting failures, some capital may flow back for partial recovery and news-driven trading.

Tomorrow’s key signals to watch: 1. Whether core stocks like Tiandi Online and Zhejiang Wenlian can reach new highs and open up space; 2. Whether the rebound stocks like Yao Wang Technology or Qunxing Toys can continue to follow and upgrade; 3. Whether capacity stocks like Blue Cursor and Lio Shares can follow the rebound after breaking structure. Be cautious of chasing highs; current funds are using expectations to trap retail investors. When funds are betting on news, the intra-day high points may be the points for quantitative funds to cash out.

Consumption -
In the first phase of trial-and-error cycle.

Today’s relatively strong consumption sector mainly splits into two branches: film & tourism and retail liquor.

1. The film & tourism concept driven by Spring Festival holiday expectations, led by Hengdian World Studios and Huangshan Tourism, with low-position capacity stocks like Guangxian Media oscillating, others rotating randomly.

2. The oversold rebound in retail liquor, led by Huangtai Liquor, followed by Neya, Sanjiang Shopping, Xinhua Du, Maoye Commercial, etc., with some capacity stocks like Kweichow Moutai shrinking and showing small positive signals. Note that Sanjiang and Xinhua Du also have Alibaba concepts layered in.

A key signal in the consumption sector is that the recent limit-up heights are mainly 4-limits for Huangtai Liquor and Hengdian, indicating high suppression. Based on the four sector factors (height and space, sector effect, capacity core, arbitrage board), the current conditions lack the core space and arbitrage opportunities for sustained expectations.

In summary, the recent rise in consumption is driven by market funds’ lack of confidence in long positions and frequent “buy the dip” behavior. Under low sentiment, funds shift toward oversold and defensive consumption sectors, which is essentially a risk-avoidance sentiment. The clearest sign is the continuous small positive signals from institutions like Kweichow Moutai. Also, note that consumption often has a non-positive correlation with the index. When the index is risk-free and rebounds, a divergence signal may appear, so this is a phase of sector rotation.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown, today’s index opened low, stabilized after a pullback, then rebounded in a V-shape. Recent reviews have emphasized two possible market scenarios, as shown below, today’s market leans toward the second scenario.

This secondary correction was originally expected on Friday or next Monday. Due to external negative news accelerating the process before the market open, similar to the last big drop, the secondary correction is not a bearish outlook. Under the condition that the index remains in a strong controlled slow bull trend, the correction reflects the exhaustion of initial bottom-fishing capital after profit-taking.

A somewhat negative signal today is that the index rebounded before falling enough, indicating some market support behavior. Regardless, the outlook remains not bearish, with a support around 4020 on the left side. A larger decline would be a relatively high-cost entry point.

Tomorrow’s Pre-market Strategy:
From sentiment perspective, in a range-bound market, today’s sentiment is at an ice point. If tomorrow continues the second ice point, it could be a rebound opportunity. If the index opens low and oscillates upward, it’s a high-cost trading chance. If the index opens flat and then oscillates, wait for a second ice point during the session to participate.

From rotation expectation differences, sectors like commercial aerospace (partial) and AI applications (partial) have capital trading news expectations for rotation. From a technical perspective, the trend is irreversible. Recently, sectors like fiber optics and Q-boards show upward oscillation expectations. Given the high randomness of current rotation trends, there is uncertainty. The only relatively certain opportunities are in indices or index ETFs with positive correlation to rebound expectations, with no risk of the index itself.

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