Rida Futures: Shanghai Tin Experiences Short-Term Wide-Range Adjustment

Macroeconomic outlook: China’s January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, and sales prices increased for the first time in 14 months. The US January ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching a new high since February 2022. Fundamentals: On the supply side, Myanmar’s production restart progress combined with the end of the rainy season has led to a rebound in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue increasing in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have slightly risen, indicating a loosening of the tight tin ore supply situation. On the smelting side, most companies still have low raw material inventories, and most are operating at a loss. Coupled with increased maintenance at year-end, refined tin production remains limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the New Year. Regarding imports, Indonesia’s tin exports have increased, and import channels are gradually opening, increasing import pressure. On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI sector are strong, which will significantly boost soldering tin demand. Recently, tin prices remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventories have increased, with spot premiums rising back to 800 yuan/ton; LME inventories have surged, causing spot premiums to decline. Currently, open interest is decreasing, and price adjustments are cautious on both sides. Short-term, Shanghai tin is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, focusing on the 360,000-410,000 yuan range. (Ruida Futures)