This is the first time since the end of 2023 that BTC has retested this long-term trend line. Historical data shows that after breaking below the 100-week moving average, Bitcoin often retraces to the 200-week moving average and forms a medium- to long-term bottom. Some traders expect that if the price continues to decline, the $68,000 level will be a key observation zone. If this level is broken, the next target range could shift down to $55,000–$58,000.

Despite BTC's retracement of over 40% from its high, market sentiment has not shown a full capitulation. Institutional analysts point out that the crypto market "winter" typically lasts about 14 months, and the current phase may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows of approximately $3.2 billion since mid-January, accounting for only about 3% of its total assets under management, indicating that long-term capital resilience remains. #当前行情抄底还是观望？