February 6 Member Morning Report: Amazon's Capital Expenditure Shocks the Market, US January Layoffs Surge

1. 【Amazon Capital Expenditure Surprises the Market】 Amazon released its latest earnings report, forecasting capital expenditures of $200 billion this year, far exceeding market expectations.

Commentary: This guidance not only surpasses the market consensus of $146.1 billion but also represents a 60% increase over the approximately $125 billion expenditure level in 2025. By comparison: $200 billion exceeds the annual GDP of most countries worldwide and also surpasses the combined capital expenditures of traditional semiconductor giants like Intel and TSMC. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy explicitly stated during the conference call that this massive investment will flow into four “seed opportunity” areas: generative AI infrastructure, in-house chips, robotics technology, and low-earth orbit satellite networks. Clearly, Amazon has just entered a profitable period and is now entering another phase of heavy spending. Amazon’s stock plummeted nearly 9% in after-hours trading, revealing a fundamental shift in investor sentiment: during the AI boom (2023-2024), any statements about increased AI investment were seen as positive; but by 2026, the market begins to scrutinize the return on these huge capital outlays. For an in-depth analysis, see: “What Are Investors Afraid of in the Unexpectedly Strong Earnings Reports and the Market’s Sharp Decline!?”

2. 【US January Layoffs Surge】 US companies announced 108,435 layoffs in January, a 118% year-over-year increase, marking the highest level since the most severe recession period in 2009. Corporate hiring intentions declined by 13% year-over-year to 5,306, the weakest January performance on record since 2009.

3. 【Rio Tinto and Glencore Abandon Merger Plans】 The merger was originally set to create the world’s largest mining company valued at over $260 billion. Rio Tinto stated that the two sides failed to reach a deal that would deliver sufficient value to shareholders. Glencore said Rio Tinto’s bid “seriously undervalued” its business.

4. 【Anthropic Drops a Heavy Bombshell Again】 Anthropic released an upgraded version of its Claude model. The company claims that the new Claude outperforms competitors’ products in programming, analyzing financial data, and executing other business tasks. Earlier this week, after launching an AI tool capable of handling some legal work, Anthropic caused a sharp decline in the stock prices of several legal software providers.

Commentary: This new model features two devastating technological characteristics: a 1 million token context window (allowing AI to read and understand thousands of pages of legal contracts, entire company codebases, or ten years of financial statements in one go without forgetting details); and agentic capabilities: Claude is no longer just a chatbot; it can act as an “agent” to independently perform multi-step tasks. For example, it can autonomously retrieve legal precedents, draft contracts, conduct compliance reviews, and modify clauses without human intervention. Investors realize that generative AI is evolving from “software auxiliary functions” to “software substitutes.” This is a deflationary revolution: it will greatly reduce the costs of professional services but also destroy the profit pools of existing software giants built on these high costs.

5. 【Investment Giants Begin to Flee Dollar Assets】 Europe’s largest asset management firm—Amundi Asset Management of France—is reducing its investments in dollar-denominated assets and shifting its focus toward Europe and emerging markets. The company warns that if US economic policies remain unchanged, the dollar will continue to weaken.