Huatai Securities: Optimistic about the recovery of wind power and photovoltaic profits by 2026; space photovoltaics may create new business models

Huatai Securities points out that recently wind power and photovoltaic companies have successively disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts. Based on expected performance, in Q4 2025, wind turbine profitability may face pressure due to the concentrated delivery of low-priced domestic land wind projects, and photovoltaic companies are generally experiencing increased losses, mainly due to the sharp rise in silver prices leading to higher battery module costs. Looking ahead to 2026, Huatai Securities reaffirms the profitability recovery trend in the wind and photovoltaic sectors: 1) Wind turbine order prices have continued to rebound since Q4 2024. Considering that the delivery of previously low-priced orders is nearing completion, the gradual delivery of price-increased orders will support profit recovery. 2) Under the expectation of declining photovoltaic demand, the supply chain may strengthen quality and cost control, accelerate the introduction of high-power products and scarce metals, which is expected to drive profit recovery. Meanwhile, space photovoltaics may create new business models; recently, SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI to build a space-ground-computing ecosystem. Leading photovoltaic companies have deep R&D accumulation and significant cross-sector advantages, and wind power companies may benefit from forward-looking investment layouts.

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Huatai | Electric Power & New Energy: Optimistic About Profit Recovery in Wind and Photovoltaics in 2026

Key Points

Recently, wind power and photovoltaic companies have successively disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts. Based on expected results, in Q4 2025, wind turbines faced profitability pressure due to the concentrated delivery of low-priced domestic land wind projects, and the profit per unit for power stations after Document 136 may have declined, leading to performance below Wind’s consensus expectations; component segments saw revenue decline due to seasonal factors, and performance was slightly below Wind’s consensus expectations. Some companies are constrained by fewer offshore wind shipments, strategic transformation impairments, and increased capacity investments, which short-term pressure profit margins. Looking ahead to 2026, the delivery of wind turbine price-increased orders is expected to support industry chain profit recovery, with accelerated offshore wind project commencements laying a foundation for sustained installed capacity growth.

Photovoltaics: Gross margin and cash flow may be the lifelines for companies

In Q4 2025, a sharp rise in silver prices pushed up battery module costs. As of the end of December, the Shanghai Silver Index was 23,117, up 56% from the end of September. Calculated at 9-10mg silver per watt, this corresponds to a 5-6 cents/W increase in battery module costs; simultaneously, rising silicon material prices led to higher costs and production setbacks, increasing industry chain losses. Since 2026, silver prices have further increased, intensifying the demand for silver reduction in modules. Companies like Jinko Solar, Longi Green Energy, and Trina Solar are expected to achieve mass production of scarce metal products in the first half of the year, which we believe benefits slurry companies’ processing fee recovery and upstream powder manufacturers. In the context of weak industry demand, gross margin and cash flow are critical for corporate survival. We believe the industry chain may accelerate the introduction of scarce metal slurry to reduce costs and contribute premium to high-power product shipments.

Space photovoltaics to create new business models

Recently, SpaceX announced the acquisition of xAI, with a post-merger valuation expected to exceed $1 trillion, creating a space-ground-computing ecosystem. We believe subsequent progress in space photovoltaics may continue to update, with related product exchanges and equipment orders gradually materializing.

Leading photovoltaic companies have deep R&D accumulation and are accelerating the industrialization of space photovoltaics: 1) Jinko Solar: Collaborating with Jintai Holdings on AI + perovskite, planning to build the industry’s first 1,000-square-meter AI-stacked solar demonstration line, with commercialized perovskite stacked batteries expected between 2026-2028. 2) JunDa Co.: Equity investments in Shangyi Optoelectronics, Xingyi Core, and Xuntian Qianhe, with the first industrialized N-type + perovskite stacked battery expected to be completed in November 2025. 3) Trina Solar: R&D in P-HJT, perovskite stacking, and GaAs, with connections to commercial aerospace clients. 4) Risen Energy: Achieved small batch deliveries of P-type ultra-thin heterojunction to overseas clients. 5) Foster: Mass production of POE胶膜 and butyl rubber products suitable for perovskite battery encapsulation and protection. 6) Haiyou New Materials: Developing POE modified materials, space-specific packaging materials, and exploring potential domestic and overseas business channels.

Forward-looking investment layouts of wind power companies: 1) Goldwind: Holds 4.14% of Blue Arrow Aerospace through a wholly-owned subsidiary. 2) Mingyang Smart Energy: Acquired control of its subsidiary Dehua Chip, which has a full industrial chain from epitaxial materials to space energy systems. 3) Taisun Wind Power: Established a joint venture with YunYao Aerospace through a wholly-owned subsidiary to develop “aerospace information + new energy” business.

Risk Tips: Demand for wind and photovoltaic may fall short of expectations, space photovoltaic industrialization may underperform, and market competition may intensify.

(Article source: People’s Financial News)