#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Bitcoin falls below $60,000, breaking past production costs: Are miners "surrendering" and signaling a market bottom?

Currently, Bitcoin is priced around $60,000, while estimates from multiple institutions suggest the average production cost is approximately $87,000. This means Bitcoin's price is about 26% below the cost line, and many miners are facing the dilemma of "losing money as soon as they turn on the machine."

Looking back at history, prolonged periods below production costs often reflect deep market adjustments—similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2019 and 2022. Prices typically need time to rebalance with hash rate and energy costs before forming a bottom and rebounding.

Hash Rate Changes Confirm Industry Pressure
After reaching a peak of about 1.1 ZH/s in October last year, the total network hash rate declined by roughly 20% due to the shutdown of outdated, high-energy-consuming mining rigs. Recently, it has slightly rebounded to 913 EH/s, showing initial signs of stabilization, but remains relatively low, indicating some miners have exited or reduced production.

"Miner Surrender" Continues
As current mining revenues struggle to cover electricity, operational, and debt costs, miners are forced to sell Bitcoin reserves to maintain operations. This selling pressure not only increases market supply but also exposes the financial stress faced by the industry. We are in a typical "miner surrender" phase—when weaker players exit gradually, and cost structures are reshaped, often laying the groundwork for subsequent market recovery.

Future Outlook
If prices remain below production costs for an extended period, it could further force hash rate de-leverage and mining hardware upgrades. As inefficient capacity is phased out, the overall network mining costs are expected to gradually decrease, and industry concentration may increase. Historically, easing miner selling pressure and hash rate bottoming out are often precursors to market sentiment reaching its lowest point.