February 6 | BTC Price Movement Analysis

MicroChainAi · 2026-02-06T01:44:50+00:00

BTC drops to $64,297, with a 24-hour low of $61,000, dragged down by continuous ETF outflows, sovereign selling, and macro risk aversion. The daily RSI is at 19.4, indicating extreme oversold conditions. Derivatives de-leverage has essentially completed, with longs liquidated for over $1.4 billion. Currently, focus is on the key support at $61,000. If it holds or a technical rebound occurs, the target ranges from $65,000 to $69,000; a break below could see a decline toward $57,000. In the short term, expect oscillations and a bottoming process, while medium-term attention remains on macro factors and capital flows.

MicroChainAi

2026-02-06 01:44:50

Key Points

Current Price: $64,297 (as of February 6, 2026, 09:40)
Short-term Outlook: The price has entered an extremely oversold zone, with leverage pressure significantly released. It is expected to enter a low-range consolidation phase, followed by a potential technical rebound. However, the rebound strength will be constrained by macro risks and market sentiment.
Key Support Levels: $61,000 (coinciding with historical support and the lower Bollinger Band), $60,000 (psychological round number)
Key Resistance Levels: $65,000 (recent rebound high and middle Bollinger Band pressure), $69,000 (previous cycle high and psychological resistance)

Detailed Analysis

Causes of the Sharp Drop

BTC experienced a dramatic decline in the past 24 hours, dropping from around $73,000 to a low of $61,000, a decline of over 15%. The main factors driving this crash include:

Massive ETF Outflows: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with a single-day outflow of $545 million on February 4th. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw outflows of $373 million, reflecting continued institutional selling.
Sovereign Selling Pressure: The Royal Government of Bhutan transferred 284 BTC (worth about $22 million) to market-making institutions QCP Capital. This is part of a recent series of sales mainly driven by increased mining costs post-Bitcoin halving, creating fiscal pressure.
Macroeconomic Risks: Weak US employment data (record high layoffs in January since 2009), combined with concerns over AI industry capital expenditure (e.g., Google’s projected $180 billion spend in 2026), have heightened risk aversion in tech stocks and risk assets overall.
Emotional Stop-Losses and Liquidations: Falling below key support levels (such as $70,000 and $68,000) triggered large-scale stop-loss orders, creating a panic selling feedback loop.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, BTC has entered an extremely oversold state but no clear trend reversal signals have appeared:

RSI Indicators: Daily RSI at 19.4, 4-hour RSI at 19.4, 1-hour RSI at 30.9—all below the 30 oversold threshold, at the lowest 10% percentile in the past five years, indicating excessive selling pressure.
MACD Indicators: Daily MACD histogram at -2,413, 4-hour at -976, both negative and expanding, showing ongoing downward momentum. However, the slope is slowing, hinting at diminishing energy.
Bollinger Bands: Price has touched the lower bands across multiple timeframes (1-hour lower band at $61,391; 4-hour at $63,479). Historically, such touches often precede technical rebounds, but confirmation is needed.
Key Levels Testing: $61,000 is near the 2021 cycle high (~$69,000) and coincides with the lower Bollinger Band, serving as a critical support. If broken, the price could quickly fall toward $60,000 or even $57,000 (around the 200-week moving average).

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Derivatives data show that most deleveraging has been completed, but market sentiment remains fragile:

Liquidation Volume: $1.418 billion in total liquidations over 24 hours, with 84% from longs (long-short liquidation ratio of 5.91:1), indicating significant leverage-driven long squeezes.
Open Interest (OI): OI has decreased from $28.8 billion at the end of January to $9.56 billion, a reduction of about 25%, reflecting active deleveraging and reduced leverage pressure.
Funding Rates: The average funding rate is near zero (neutral), unlike previous periods of positive rates (longs paying shorts), suggesting a temporary balance between bulls and bears but lacking a bullish premium.
Position Structure: Although specific long-short ratio data is missing, the decline in OI combined with liquidations indicates the market has transitioned from high leverage to a more healthy state, laying a foundation for potential rebound.

Short-term Outlook

Based on fundamental and technical analysis, the short-term trend is likely to be “low-range consolidation followed by a technical rebound”:

Rebound Logic: Extreme oversold conditions (RSI<20), support at Bollinger Band lower limits, completed deleveraging, and historical patterns (e.g., after the FTX collapse in November 2022) suggest a quick 10-20% bounce.
Risks: Macro uncertainties (Fed policy, geopolitical tensions), continued ETF outflows, and a break below $61,000 could trigger another wave of panic selling.
Key Watchpoints:
- Upside: Break above $65,000 (4-hour middle Bollinger Band) to confirm a rebound, with stronger resistance at $69,000.
- Downside: Falling below $61,000 could lead to further declines toward $60,000 (psychological level) and $57,000 (analyst’s suggested bottom zone).

Conclusion

BTC is currently at a critical point for a short-term oversold rebound. Investors should closely monitor the $61,000 support level. If it holds, consider light positions targeting a rebound to $65,000–$69,000; if broken, prepare for further downside risk. Macro risks (such as the Fed’s March meeting) and institutional fund flows (ETF net outflows/inflows) will be key factors shaping the medium-term direction.

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