📊 Four-hour technical confirmation of a bearish dominance

· Price position: Current price around 1,926.26 USDT, has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (1,990.94) and the SAR value (1,992.56), with several consecutive SAR dots above the price, forming a classic bearish position signal.
· Bollinger Bands pattern: Middle band sloping downward, upper band at 2,103.78, lower band at 1,878.10, with a wide channel. The price is moving toward the lower band, with no signs of narrowing or divergence, leaving room for further decline.
· Volume, price, and pattern: After falling from the high of 2,147, the 4-hour candlesticks show a normal downtrend with more bearish candles, lower highs, and no clear bottom structure. The recent low of 1,848.67 (or previous support) will be a key defensive level if tested again.

-⚖️ Capital and sentiment confirm bearish logic

No fee rate reversal within the 4-hour settlement cycle, indicating professional funds tend to hold short positions, with no active long accumulation.
· Order book depth: Buy orders account for 60%, sell orders 40%, showing some support below, but the main buy volume is concentrated around 1,926.26, with moderate thickness, making it difficult to block the bearish attack; if the price continues downward, passive buy orders may be quickly absorbed.
🔮 4-hour cycle trend forecast
1. Probable scenario (70%):
Continued decline, gradually approaching the lower Bollinger Band at 1,878.10. If it rebounds without strength after touching it, the price will test the previous low of 1,848.67. This process may last for 2-4 four-hour candles.
2. Less probable scenario (20%):
Support from buy volume around the 1,900 round number, with a quick rebound above 1,950, but unable to hold above SAR resistance at 1,992, then continuing to fall, forming a downtrend continuation.
3. Extreme scenario (10%):
Due to macro news or on-chain liquidations, a sudden volume spike causes a break below the lower band within 4 hours, with a quick dip below 1,820 and rapid recovery, completing a double explosion of bulls and bears.
🧭 Four-hour trading reference
· Bearish approach:
Consider short positions on rebounds to the 1,945-1,955 zone, with a stop loss above SAR at 1,995, and targets at 1,900, 1,878, and 1,848.
· Bullish approach:
Only trade on the right side, waiting for the price to re-establish above the Bollinger middle band (1,990) and for SAR to turn bullish before considering long positions. Engaging in left-side rebounds carries high risk and is not recommended.
· Key levels:
· Resistance above: 1,945 (short-term resistance), 1,990 (Bollinger middle band), 2,000 (round number)
· Support below: 1,900 (psychological level), 1,878 (Bollinger lower band), 1,848 (previous low)
Ethereum’s 4-hour cycle is in a clear downtrend, with downward momentum not fully exhausted. Today is likely to continue testing lows under pressure. Trading should focus on shorting rebounds, patiently waiting for support tests.