CITIC Securities: Space Photovoltaic Equipment Value May Experience a Leap in Growth

CITIC Securities Research Report states that the demand for space photovoltaics is expected to experience exponential growth. Elon Musk is betting on photovoltaic manufacturing to pave the way for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers possess strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, making it likely they will join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related equipment providers, securing substantial orders and opening up new growth opportunities. Additionally, space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit obvious inflationary effects, with the value potentially achieving a leapfrog increase. The report highly recommends leading manufacturers in all segments of photovoltaic equipment with technological, product, and market share advantages.

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Electrification & New Energy | Space Photovoltaics as a Seller’s Market, Potentially Leading to Value Leap

The demand for space photovoltaics is poised for exponential growth. Elon Musk’s investments in photovoltaic manufacturing are laying the groundwork for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers have strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, making it likely they will join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related equipment providers, securing substantial orders and opening up new growth opportunities. Moreover, space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit significant inflationary effects, with its value potentially experiencing a leapfrog increase. The report emphasizes the importance of leading manufacturers with technological, product, and market share advantages across all segments of photovoltaic equipment.

▍ SpaceX Aims for Orbital Computing Power, Space Photovoltaic Demand Growth May Surpass Expectations

SpaceX is leading the development of commercial spaceflight, accelerating the deployment and upgrade of Starlink satellites, and has applied to deploy millions of satellites, officially entering the space data center market. Space photovoltaics are currently the only energy source for satellites and orbital computing power, and their demand growth rate and market space are expected to see exponential increases. Our estimates suggest that under conservative scenarios, by 2030, global demand for space photovoltaics could reach 1 GW with a market value exceeding 80 billion yuan; under optimistic scenarios, demand could reach 70 GW with a market size approaching 3 trillion yuan. We forecast that over the next five years, the market for space P-type HJT and perovskite batteries could grow by a hundredfold or even a thousandfold.

▍ Elon Musk Bets on Photovoltaic Manufacturing, Leading PV Equipment Manufacturers Face Major Opportunities

At the 2026 Davos Forum, Elon Musk revealed that Tesla and SpaceX plan to build upstream and downstream manufacturing capacities of 100 GW each for photovoltaics in the coming years, based on ground power and space photovoltaic demands. We expect Tesla to primarily adopt TOPCon technology at this stage, while SpaceX may choose the P-type HJT technology route. Chinese leading PV equipment manufacturers, with their high-efficiency iteration and rapid response capabilities, are well-suited to meet the high standards and strict requirements of Tesla and SpaceX. Top-tier companies across all segments are expected to secure significant shares of their equipment supply chains, potentially even dominating the market, further expanding the vast growth space from ground to space.

▍ Growth Potential for Leading PV Equipment Manufacturers Opens Up, Equipment Value May Experience Leapfrog Growth

In addition to SpaceX’s clear plans to build its own PV capacity, other domestic and international manufacturers are also expected to accelerate capacity planning. As space computing power development accelerates and perovskite tandem cell technology matures, the demand for equipment upgrades will continue to grow, potentially opening a market of hundreds of GW per year in the long term. Moreover, space photovoltaic technology involves higher process complexity, customization, equipment standards, and additional redundancies due to low production efficiency compared to traditional photovoltaics, which could significantly increase the value of related equipment. The space photovoltaic equipment market may also surpass expectations.

▍ Risk Factors:

Satellite launch schedules may fall short of expectations; the expansion of PV capacity by Tesla and SpaceX may not meet projections; domestic equipment manufacturers’ order fulfillment remains uncertain; standards and certification processes may develop slower than anticipated; uncertainties in space computing power planning.

▍ Investment Strategy:

Elon Musk’s focus on photovoltaic manufacturing is laying the foundation for orbital computing power and AI power supply. Leading Chinese PV equipment manufacturers, with their strong capabilities in efficient iteration and rapid response, are likely to join the supply chains of Tesla, SpaceX, and other related companies, securing large orders and opening new growth avenues. Additionally, space photovoltaic equipment may exhibit clear inflationary effects, with its value potentially experiencing a leapfrog increase. The report recommends focusing on leading PV equipment manufacturers.

(Source: Cailian Press)