Institutions: Bitcoin Still Faces Further Downside Risk, Deep Bear Market Could "Cut in Half" Again

Summary: Ned Davis Research analysts believe that Bitcoin remains at risk of further decline after experiencing a large-scale sell-off, with potential drops of 70%-75%, possibly down to $31,000. However, more institutional buyers currently may provide stability to the price, and a winter is not necessarily inevitable.
According to BlockBeats, on February 14, citing a report to clients, Ned Davis Research strategists stated that despite Bitcoin experiencing significant sell-offs in recent months, it still faces downside risk. Ned Davis Research Chief Thematic Strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls noted that based on analysis of past Bitcoin downturn cycles, if the current bear market evolves into a full-blown "crypto winter," the decline from peak to trough could reach 70%-75%, meaning Bitcoin could fall as low as $31,000.
Bitcoin has already fallen 44% from its peak in October last year. If it drops to $31,000, that would represent a further 55% decline from current levels. Tschosik and Mouls added that data shows, tracing back to 2011, the average decline during Bitcoin bear markets was 84%, lasting an average of 225 days. Since Bitcoin peaked in early October last year, only 129 days have passed so far. However, the two analysts also pointed out that a "winter" is not necessarily going to happen. Compared to the past, Bitcoin currently has more institutional buyers, which could bring greater stability to the price.
"Historical data shows that the declines during winter/major bear markets tend to slow slightly over time, and we believe this trend will continue," they said when discussing price forecasts.
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